What the betting odds say about the KC Chiefs-Buffalo Bills AFC Championship Game matchup
The recent history of the Chiefs and Bills rivalry is literally even.
Over their last 10 games, each team has won five times and scored the exact same number of points.
It’s no wonder that the betting line for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game is so small. The Chiefs opened as 1 1/2-point favorite against the Bills, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. On Wednesday morning, that had increased slightly to 2 points.
The over/under is set at 47 1/2 points, per BetMGM.
The Chiefs are 8-10 against the spread this season, including the playoffs, per Covers.com. They failed to cover in Saturday’s win over the Texans, but that was because punter Matt Araiza took a late safety.
The under has been the winning bet in six of the last seven Chiefs games.
Buffalo was 12-7 against the spread, Covers.com says, and that includes covering in two playoff victories. In the Bills’ first postseason game, the under was the winning bet while Sunday’s victory against the Ravens was a push.
Bill Speros of Bookies.com wrote this: “The Chiefs have disappointed spread bettors all season and stand 8-10 ATS despite their stellar record. Home teams are 37-17 since the AFC Championship Game was first played in 1970, which was the first season of the post-NFL/AFL merger. Favorites have gone 39-15 straight up and 31-22-1 ATS.”
Prop bets
Here are a couple of prop bets to watch.
Odds Shark shows there is an over/under bet for Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt rushing yards (34 1/2 yards). Hunt has rushed for 44 or more yards in three of the Chiefs’ past four games. Buffalo’s defense was ranked 12th against the run this season, so this could be a good bet.
BetMGM gives Bills quarterback Josh Allen the best odds as an anytime TD scorer (+100). Allen ran for two touchdowns against the Ravens. He’s rushed for 11 touchdowns in his last nine games, so this also could be a good bet.
This story was originally published January 22, 2025 at 10:59 AM.
