Royals playoff preview: Three reasons why the Baltimore Orioles are vulnerable
Heading into the final day of June, the Baltimore Orioles were tied for the American League lead with 53 victories and held a one-game lead over the Yankees in the East.
Since then, the Orioles have played sub-.500 baseball (38-41 record), and that includes a three-game sweep of the Twins to end the regular season.
When they take the field Tuesday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for Game 1 of an American League Wild Card series against the Royals, that record won’t matter. Every team in the postseason tournament has a 0-0 record but ... there are reasons why the Orioles look vulnerable in the best-of-three series.
Here are three reasons why the Royals, 86-76, can knock off Baltimore, 91-71.
1. Bullpen issues
The Orioles’ bullpen wobbled down the stretch, as it had the worst ERA in the American League after Sept. 1 (5.31). Their left-on-base percentage (63.3%) was the third-worst in baseball, per FanGraphs.
Over the last 28 days, left-hander Cionel Pérez has a 9.00 ERA and opponents had a .325 average against him.
Baltimore designated closer Craig Kimbrel for assignment in the middle of September. Seranthony Domínguez has three saves this month in four opportunities, but he also has a 5.87 ERA in that time and has given up six home runs in 22 2/3 innings since being acquired in a trade.
On the plus side, Danny Coulombe hasn’t allowed a run this month in four outings and Keegan Akin had a 3.32 ERA this season, averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Both are left-handers.
2. Cool bats
Catcher Adley Rutschmann is a key piece of the Orioles’ offense, but he batted just .213 with one home run in September.
Right fielder Anthony Santander had five homers and 14 RBIs in the last month, but he also struck out 20 times in 90 at-bats and had a .222 average during that span.
Former Royals first baseman Ryan O’Hearn has blossomed in Baltimore. But he, too, struggled down the stretch. O’Hearn batted .247 in 24 September games with two homers and seven RBIs.
The good news for Baltimore is the O’s are getting healthier. As the Athletic noted, third baseman Ramón Urías (sprained ankle), second baseman Jordan Westburg (fractured hand) and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (wrist injury) all had missed time but are back now for the Orioles.
3. Starting questions
MLB fans couldn’t ask for a better matchup in Game 1, as Cy Young award candidates Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes will face each other.
Burnes had a 15-9 record with a 2.92 ERA this season for the Orioles. In five September starts, he was even better with a 1.20 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 30 innings.
The Orioles were dealt a blow in August when starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (13-4, 3.86 ERA) went on the injured list because of a back injury. He will not pitch in the postseason, the Orioles said.
Baltimore hasn’t announced a Game 2 starter, but right-hander Zach Eflin is the leading candidate to get the ball. Eflin, who dealt with shoulder inflammation earlier this season, is 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in just nine starts.
Eflin was acquired in a trade this summer with the Rays. He made one start for Tampa Bay last year in the playoffs and was lit up by the Rangers. He gave up five runs in five innings and allowed two home runs.
The Royals will start another Cy Young candidate in Game 2: Seth Lugo.
This story was originally published September 30, 2024 at 9:52 AM.
