Inside the AL playoff race: Slumping Royals have gotten assist from the Twins
On Aug. 17, the Tigers were 10 1/2 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the American League Wild Card standings. Detroit also trailed the Royals by 8 1/2 games at that time.
But as the final week of the regular-season starts, the Tigers have moved past the Twins in the standings and pulled even with the Royals.
The Royals are technically ahead of the Tigers because of a better head-to-head record. But KC finished a dreadful winless six-game homestand and has struggled in the month of September (7-12), while Detroit is one of the hottest teams in baseball.
Earlier this month, the Royals seemed to be cruising toward the playoffs, but now it’s no lock. Baseball Prospectus gave the Royals a 98.1% chance of making the playoffs a week ago. Now it’s at 64.8%.
As bad as things have been for the Royals lately, it’s been much worse for the Twins. They’ve played .333 ball since that August day (11-22) and are now out of a playoff spot with six games to play.
“We have to win on Tuesday,” manager Rocco Baldelli said, per the Twins website. “They want what’s in front of them. They want the outcome of winning enough games to give ourselves a chance to go to the playoffs. That’s what we’re here for.”
Minnesota’s stumble has certainly been a boost for the Royals’ postseason hopes.
The Royals currently occupy a playoff spot, but even with the Twins’ slide, it’s tenuous. Minnesota holds a tiebreaker on the Royals, and the Mariners are lurking, just two games behind KC.
Minnesota, which was swept in a doubleheader Sunday by the Red Sox, is keeping the faith.
“We fight. We fight,” first baseman Carlos Santana said on the team’s website. “We have to keep fighting the (best) we can. Six more games left and we have to finish strong. I believe in my team to finish strong.”
Like the Royals and Tigers, the Twins still have a shot at being the No. 1 Wild Card team but also could miss the playoffs. Here is a closer look at the American League wild-card race (postseason chances are from Baseball Prospectus).
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Record: 82-74
Last 10 games: 2-8
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 64.8%
This week’s games: at Nationals (Tuesday to Thursday), at Braves (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: During their seven-game losing streak, the Royals have had the lead in just four of 64 innings
DETROIT TIGERS
Record: 82-74
Last 10 games: 7-3
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 49.9%
This week’s games: vs. Rays (Tuesday to Thursday), vs. White Sox (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: The Tigers won nine of 10 games against the White Sox this year
MINNESOTA TWINS
Record: 81-75
Last 10 games: 3-7
Games back in Wild Card race: 1
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 68.8%
This week’s games: vs. Marlins (Tuesday to Thursday), vs. Orioles (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: The Twins didn’t hit a home run in their three-game series at Boston, the Minnesota Star Tribune reported; it’s the first time that has happened to them in Fenway since Aug. 9-11, 2002
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Record: 86-70
Last 10 games: 3-7
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 99.6%
This week’s games: at Yankees (Tuesday to Thursday), at Twins (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: The Orioles haven’t had a winning record in a month since June. They are 33-39 since July 1
SEATTLE MARINERS
Record: 80-76
Last 10 games: 6-4
Games back in Wild Card race: 2
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 16.3%
This week’s games: at Astros (Monday to Wednesday), vs. A’s (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: The Mariners have a losing record in one-run games (26-27)
BOSTON RED SOX
Record: 78-78
Last 10 games: 4-6
Games back in Wild Card race: 4
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 0.0%
This week’s games: at Blue Jays (Monday to Wednesday), vs. Rays (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: Boston has an 8-12 record in September games
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Record: 78-78
Last 10 games: 7-3
Games back in Wild Card race: 4
Percentage chance of earning Wild Card: 0.4%
This week’s games: at Tigers (Tuesday to Thursday), at Red Sox (Friday to Sunday)
Stat of note: The Rays would lose a tiebreaker against the Royals based on intradivisional records
This story was originally published September 23, 2024 at 8:58 AM.
