Some MLB media members are bullish on the Royals’ chances this season
Historically, the Royals have mostly flown under the radar with their offseason moves, other than the occasional big splash.
That changed this past winter.
The Royals turned heads around baseball as they added pitchers Michael Wacha, Will Smith and Seth Lugo, along with position players Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier, among others.
MLB.com asked players at spring training which team would be the biggest surprise in 2024. The Royals were atop the list.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Royals are in first place in the (American League) Central,” a National League pitcher told MLB.com. “Everyone saw all the moves they made. Almost every week or so, it was like, ‘Oh, Royals sign this guy.’ They were at the bottom of the totem pole last year. But when they played us, their offense — they had enough young offensive guys that could really swing it.
“Now they’re bringing in pitchers, they’re bringing in veterans. If they’re doing that, it’s a clear attempt to be at the top of the division. They can see their division’s up for grabs, so I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if they were up there.”
MLB players aren’t alone in being optimistic about the Royals’ chances in the 2024 season. Here is what media members are saying about the Royals, who had a 56-106 record a year ago.
The Royals winning the American League Central is one of the bold predictions from the Washington Post’s Scott Allen and Neil Greenberg.
Here is part of what the authors wrote: “The AL Central was baseball’s weakest division in 2023, with four of its five teams finishing below .500 and the 87-win Minnesota Twins claiming the title by nine games. After bringing up the rear a year ago, the Royals signed their star shortstop, Bobby Witt Jr., to a record extension and were active in free agency, adding starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, reliever Will Smith and slugger Hunter Renfroe. Left-handed starter Cole Ragans, acquired in a trade deadline deal for Aroldis Chapman last year, is a potential breakout star after going 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts with Kansas City.”
The duo hedged a bit, making a case for the Royals not winning the division as well.
Also making MLB bold predictions was The Athletic’s Eno Sarris. One was this: “Young Royals hitters fuel wild-card run.”
This is part of what Sarris wrote: “These young Royals — Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, (Nelson) Velázquez, Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey — hit the ball hard. The team has been trying to improve the pitching development process and has added a star pitcher (Cole Ragans) and some credible veterans (Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo) over the past couple of years. They even made some trades for relievers to help shore up the pen. There’s something cooking in Kansas City, and it’s not just burnt ends.”
The Royals received two votes from ESPN writers who predicted the AL Central champion. The Twins are still the heavy favorite.
None of the six baseball writers at CBS Sports picked the Royals to win the Central. However, four (R.J. Anderson, Kate Feldman, Stephen Pianovich and Matt Snyder) have the Royals finishing third in the division, which would be a jump for a team that tied a franchise record for losses in 2023.
The Royals will have an 80-82 record, says the Sporting News’ Edward Sutelan. That prediction has the Royals finishing fourth in the AL Central, but just three games behind the division-winning Twins (83-79). What a race that would be.
Here is a snippet from this story: “After an impressive display in 2023, many see Cole Ragans as a possible Cy Young sleeper candidate in 2024. The model sees Kansas City as being not too far behind the Guardians and Tigers in the division.”
The Royals will finish third in the Central with a 77-85 record, predicts Fox Sports’ Ben Verlander.
Ragans will be the AL Cy Young award winner in preseason picks from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez. He sees the Royals finishing third in the Central.
Ragans for Cy Young also is the call from the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.
MLB.com asked 88 writers to forecast playoff participants and the Royals received votes for being a wild-card team and others for winning the Central. Alas, there is no breakdown of who voted that way or how many people cast a vote for the Royals.
But we do know that Mark Feinsand picked the Royals as division champions and he sees Matt Quatraro winning AL Manager of the Year honors.
A 76-86 record is the projection for the Royals from FanGraphs. It gives the Royals a 13.2% chance of making the postseason and a 0.3% chance of winning the World Series.
Ahead of spring training, The Athletic asked 31 baseball executives, former executives, coaches and scouts to answer questions about the upcoming season. One query: Which AL team will be most improved? The Royals were mentioned by 20 of those baseball people, who were allowed to vote for more than one team.
Here is part of what Jayson Stark wrote: “The biggest source of fascination among these voters, beyond the usual suspects, was the Royals. They lost 106 games last season, but then guaranteed $109.5 million to seven free agents: Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Chris Stratton, Garrett Hampson and Will (Have Ring, Will Travel) Smith. And that doesn’t even include the $288.7 million extension they dropped on Bobby Witt Jr. So their votes were basically a round of applause for the sight of a team that was at least trying.”
The Royals will finish with a 70-92 record is the prediction from the Athletic’s Keith Law.
This is an excerpt from his story: “They invested in short-term deals to make the major-league team better without hurting their building process at all. Kansas City spent a lot of time and resources trying to build pitching from within, but it hasn’t worked out, so they went out this winter and signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to slot in behind emerging ace Cole Ragans. ... They’re just short a number of impact bats, both in terms of OBP and power, and they don’t have the run-prevention to overcome that.”
The Royals still don’t get much love from Baseball Prospectus’ preseason PECOTA standings. This was the case even when the Royals won American League pennants in 2014 and 15. For this season, the PECOTA projections see the Royals finishing with a 71-91 record. That’d be fourth in the Central. Baseball Prospectus gives the Royals a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs.
This story was originally published March 28, 2024 at 8:58 AM.
