Chiefs may have one advantage in the race for the AFC’s top seed: their schedule
The Chiefs went into last Sunday’s game with the second-best record in the AFC.
Ahead of their game at Las Vegas, Jacksonville and Miami both won, so the Chiefs had dropped to the fourth seed in the real-time playoff seeding. But, after defeating the Raiders 31-17, the Chiefs ascended to the No. 1 spot.
Then there was another twist. The Ravens beat the Chargers on “Sunday Night Football,” and the Chiefs fell back to second in the AFC standings.
With six weeks left in the NFL season, it’s setting up to be a horse race for the top seed in the AFC. Here are the records of the four division leaders:
- Baltimore: 9-3
- Chiefs: 8-3
- Jaguars: 8-3
- Dolphins: 8-3
Baltimore’s bye week is this weekend, so if the Chiefs beat the Packers on “Sunday Night Football,” they will be back atop the AFC field based on a superior conference record.
That also means the Chiefs can be the top seed in the playoffs if they win their final six games. That’s no easy task, of course, but the Chiefs have one thing working in their favor: Their strength of schedule is the easiest in the AFC.
The website Tankathon noted the final six opponents on the Chiefs’ schedule have a combined winning percentage of .397. Only the Packers, Buccaneers and Falcons have an easier slate of games to end the season.
None of the Chiefs’ remaining foes has a winning record, but there are rivalry games against Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Here’s who the Chiefs will face to finish the season:
Sunday: at Packers, 5-6
Dec. 10: Bills, 6-6, at home
Dec. 18: at Patriots, 2-9
Dec. 25: Raiders, 5-7, at home
Dec. 31: Bengals, 5-6, at home
Jan. 6 or 7: at Chargers, 4-7
Sizing up the AFC
According to the website Playoff Status, the Chiefs have a 51% chance of getting the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Here is a look at the chances for the other top contenders in the AFC and their strength of schedule.
Baltimore Ravens
Chance of being top seed: 13%
Strength of schedule rank: 1st
Opponents: Vs. Rams; at Jaguars; at 49ers; vs. Dolphins; vs. Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chance of being top seed: 19%
Strength of schedule rank: 25th
Opponents: Vs. Bengals; at Browns; vs. Ravens; at Buccaneers; vs. Panthers; at Titans
Worth noting: The Chiefs hold the tiebreaker with Jacksonville based on their win earlier this season
Miami Dolphins
Chance of being top seed: 12%
Strength of schedule rank: 16th
Opponents: at Commanders; vs. Titans; vs. Jets; vs. Cowboys; at Ravens; vs. Bills
Worth noting: The Chiefs hold the tiebreaker with Miami based on their win in Germany
This story was originally published November 29, 2023 at 8:59 AM.
