Four games on Sunday not involving the Chiefs that could affect KC’s playoff seeding
Chances are, fans know by now the Chiefs can clinch the top seed in the AFC playoff field (and the first-round bye that comes with it) by winning their final two games of the season.
But the Chiefs also could slip to the No. 4 seed if things go wrong over the final two games of the season. Playoff Status’ computations show the Chiefs have a 63% shot of being the top seed. But they also have a 26% of being seeded second, 6% of finishing as the No. 3 seed and a 5% chance of being the No. 4 seed.
For the Chiefs to finish with anything but a top-two seed, they would have to lose Sunday against Cincinnati and against the Broncos on Jan. 9.
Just five teams can match (or exceed) the Chiefs for victories this season: Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
With that in mind, here are four Week 17 games Chiefs fans will want to keep an eye on Sunday and why.
Dolphins at Titans
Kickoff: Noon
The Chiefs can clinch the top seed by winning Sunday and having Miami, 8-7, beat Tennessee, 10-5. Even if the Chiefs lose to the Bengals, they could grab the top spot in the AFC by beating the Broncos in a Week 18 game in Denver if the Titans lose Sunday to the Dolphins (or against Houston in the season finale). As far as scoreboard watching goes, this is the big one to keep an eye on for Chiefs fans.
What’s best for Chiefs: A Dolphins victory.
Jaguars at Patriots
Kickoff: Noon
New England, 9-6, needs Buffalo to lose one of its final two games to have a chance to win the AFC East. If that happens and the Patriots end with two victories, they could catch the Chiefs for the best record in the AFC if they Chiefs go 0-2 down the stretch and the Titans and Colts lose once. New England would hold a tiebreaker on KC, based on a better conference record. There is a small chance of that happening, as Playoff Status gives the Patriots just a 1% chance of being the AFC’s top seed.
What’s best for Chiefs: A Jaguars win.
Raiders at Colts
Kickoff: Noon on Fox
Las Vegas, 8-7, can’t catch the Chiefs in the standings, but the Raiders still have a chance to make the postseason. Indianapolis, 9-6, could still win the South with a pair of victories and two Titans losses. If the Colts win out, Tennessee is swept and the Chiefs lose twice, Indy would finish ahead of KC based on a better conference record. Playoff Status gives the Colts less than a 1% chance of that happening, as it would also require a Bengals loss, too.
What’s best for Chiefs: KC fans who want every outcome to benefit the Chiefs will hope for a Raiders win. But let’s be honest, nearly every other Chiefs fan will be rooting for the Colts because, well, it’s the Raiders.
Falcons at Bills
Kickoff: Noon
The road for Buffalo, 9-6, to the AFC’s top seed: Two wins, two Chiefs losses, two Titans losses, a Colts defeat and a Bengals loss to Cleveland in Week 18. In that scenario, the Bills would be the top seed by virtue of the win over the Chiefs earlier in the season. Seems unlikely, but anything can happen in the NFL. A win by the Falcons would eliminate Buffalo’s chances of being the top seed, having a better seed than the Chiefs (even if the Bengals win Sunday) and possibly winning the AFC East.
What’s best for the Chiefs: A Falcons victory.
If the Dolphins, Jaguars, Falcons and Raiders win, the Chiefs’ chances of being the top seed would jump from 72% to 90% in the New York Times’ calculations. That’s without factoring in the in the outcome of the Chiefs-Bengals game.
