The Ringer asks if Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is trending like Kurt Warner — in a bad way
In three of the Chiefs’ first four games, Patrick Mahomes had a quarterback rating of 131.0 or better. In the last five games, Mahomes has a 75.2 rating and has thrown six touchdowns and six interceptions.
So what’s happened? That’s the question NFL writers and broadcasters have been asking this week.
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons and Sal Iacono discussed some theories on Simmons’ podcast. It’s important to remember that there is plenty of time for Mahomes to return to form. But Simmons wondered if there is one potential historic comparison.
Simmons at first tried to recall other athletes who have gone through rough patches. He mentioned Jordan Spieth’s troubles after being ranked No. 1 and Greg Norman losing a 6-stroke lead on the final day of the 1996 Masters. There also have been baseball players whose performances have unexpectedly dipped.
“Is it the yips?” Iacono asked. “Because we know he’s talented, we know what he can do, we know what he did four weeks ago, is it the yips? Is it the football version of the yips, where I just can’t throw it downfield? Because some of these throws are just God awful and nothing we’ve ever seen from him before.”
That may seem harsh, but the NFL’s Next Gen Stats noted Mahomes averaged 3 air yards per completion against the Packers, his second lowest of the season. The lowest came a week earlier against the Giants (2 air yards per completion).
That’s when Simmons mentioned a Hall of Fame quarterback who is not often remembered for having serious troubles: Kurt Warner.
Simmons wasn’t saying Mahomes is following Warner’s career path but noted how things fell apart for Warner at one time.
“In 1999, they have the big Super Bowl, year: 4,353 yards 41 TDs, 13 picks,” Simmons said, quoting Warner’s stats. “In 2000 he got hurt, came back (for) half the season, they were 8-3. In 2001, 14-2, the Pats beat them (in the Super Bowl). And then remember 2002, he was 0-6 as a starter. (In) ‘03, he’s just out. He’s 0-1, he lost his job, ends up going to the Giants in ‘04, and then was like the backup QB in Arizona forever, and then in ‘08 and ‘09 he got it back. He was older. ...
“Remember we were like what’s going on with Kurt Warner for two years? ... I don’t know if Mahomes is at that point, but it’s similar in that Warner just looked like the next Dan Marino and all of a sudden he wasn’t. Mahomes looked like the first Pat Mahomes and now I don’t know what I’m watching. I’m watching a guy who seems to throw the ball up for grabs and make bad decisions nine to 10 times a game.”
As Simmons noted, it’s still early and Mahomes can turn things around.
Maybe in two months we’ll all look back and chuckle about the overreaction from NFL pundits about Mahomes’ struggles the past few games.
This story was originally published November 11, 2021 at 9:00 AM.
