Here is how national MLB experts see the Royals faring in the 2021 season
The Royals broke spring-training camp with the best record in Cactus League play and a healthy dose of optimism about the 2021 season.
A year ago, things didn’t go so well. The Royals were beset by COVID-19 absences early, and they opened the shortened season with a 3-10 record. They were 23-24 after that and could point to a 1-9 record against the White Sox as a big reason why they were unable to get in the playoff chase.
Do the media members who cover Major League Baseball share the Royals’ confidence for this season? Here is a sample of what is being said about the team ahead of Thursday’s season opener.
ESPN’s writers made season predictions and offered best- and worst-case scenarios for each team, along with bold picks and exciting players. The Royals have a projected 74-88 record and a 12.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Here is Bradford Doolittle’s best-case scenario: “Andrew Benintendi rediscovers the star path he once was on in Boston. Adalberto Mondesi breaks out with a 25-homer, 50-steal season that puts him in the MVP conversation. The rotation flourishes from depth and the ongoing infusion of recent early-round draft picks. Bobby Witt Jr. joins the party by June, pushing the Royals to a 90-win, wild-card season.”
FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Royals a 10% of making the playoffs and forecasts a 74-88 record, which would be fourth in the division.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post put the over-under on Royals victories at 73 1/2. This is part of what he wrote about Kansas City: “There is buzz on the Royals, but they are likely still a year away. They still might be sellers in July — Danny Duffy, Greg Holland and Jorge Soler are all in their walk years, and they could always test the market for a piece like Whit Merrifield. But they are on the right track.”
FanGraphs had its 38 staff members make picks for division winners and the two wild cards in each league. The Royals were predicted to make the playoffs by one person: Matthew Roberson, who sees Kansas City being the second wild-card team and would play the Twins, who were his other wild card.
The playoff odds for FanGraphs gives the Royals an 8.9% chance of making the postseason. And, if you want to dream big, a 0.2% of winning the World Series. Get those Lloyd Christmas jokes in now.
Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions predicted a 73-win season for the Royals and a fourth-place finish in the AL Central:
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA Standings show the Royals at 69.6 victories, which would be fourth in the Central, and a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Two of the five CBS Sports writers picked the Royals to finish third in the AL Central: Mike Axisa and Matt Snyder. Katherine Acquavella, R.J. Anderson and Dayn Perry have the Royals ending up fourth. All five see the Royals missing the postseason.
Baseball America predicts a fourth-place finish in the AL Central for the Royals.
Kyle Glaser also has best- and worst-case scenarios for the season, and things will go well for the Royals, he writes, if “The Royals’ offseason additions and bounceback campaigns from OF Jorge Soler and 3B Hunter Dozier make for a vastly improved offense. Combined with solid showings from a sneaky-good pitching staff, the Royals post their first winning record since 2015 and slide past the Indians for third place.”
None of the seven USA Today experts see the Royals making the postseason field.
The Royals weren’t seen as a playoff team by the four writers for The Ringer.
SportsBettingDime gave over/under win totals for every MLB team and the Royals were 25th on the list with 70 victories, ahead of only the Pirates, Rockies, Orioles, Rangers and Tigers. The Royals are a 325-1 shot to win the World Series.
This story was originally published April 1, 2021 at 9:03 AM.
