These NFL records might be within reach of Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes in 17-game season
When the NFL began play in 1978, Joe Namath was the record holder for passing yards in a single season with 4,007, as the league’s website noted.
Broadway Joe did that in a 14-game season and it seemed inevitable that his record would fall after the NFL added two games to the schedule in 1978.
“Over nearly the first six decades of the NFL’s existence, Namath was the only QB to pass for 4,000-plus yards,” NFL Research wrote. “By the end of the 1980 season, there were two more. Chargers QB Dan Fouts surpassed that mark in 1979 with 4,082 yards, and again in 1980 with 4,715 yards. Browns QB Brian Sipe also joined the 4K club in 1980 with 4,132 passing yards. Since 1979, the league has featured at least one 4,000-yard passer in all but three seasons (the 1982 and ‘87 strike-shortened campaigns, and 1997).”
The 4,000-yard benchmark was left in the dust when Dan Marino threw for 5,084 yards in 1984. In 12 separate occasions, a player has reached the 5,000-yard mark.
Starting this fall, NFL teams will play a 17-game schedule, which means more could join that list and some records might fall.
Could Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has had a prolific start to his career, threaten one or more single-season passing records? Let’s take a look (stats from Pro Football Reference).
Passing yards
Current record holder: Peyton Manning with 5,477 yards in 2013
Mahomes’ single-season best: 5,097 yards in 2018
Pace needed to set record: 322.3 yards per game, roughly 20 yards less than in a 16-game season
Outlook: If you use Mahomes’ per-game average in 2018 (318.5625 yards) over 17 games, it equals 5,416 yards for a season. Doesn’t seem impossible, does it?
Touchdown passes
Current record holder: Peyton Manning with 55 TDs in 2013
Mahomes’ single-season best: 50 touchdowns in 2018
Pace needed to set record: 3.3 per game or roughly 0.14 less than in a 16-game season.
Outlook: Manning is the only player ever to throw more than 50 touchdown passes in a season. In 2013, he had a game with seven TD passes and nine with four or more touchdown throws. His season low that year was one touchdown pass and that happened once. If Mahomes throws more red-zone touchdowns and can replicate that 2018 season, then it he could threaten the record.
Completions
Current record holder: Drew Brees with 471 in 2016
Mahomes’ single-season best: 390 in the 2020 season
Pace needed to set record: 27.8 per game or 1.7 fewer than a 16-game season
Outlook: Mahomes averaged 26 pass completions this past season and sat out the season finale. So with two extra games, that average would equal 442 for the season. That gets him close. But he’s probably at a disadvantage because his yards-per-completion is too high, although he had a career-low 12.2 ypc last season.
Pass attempts
Current record holder: Matthew Stafford, who had 727 in 2012
Mahomes’ single-season best: 588 attempts this past season
Pace needed to set record: 42.8 attempts per game
Outlook: Something would have to go seriously wrong for the Chiefs if Mahomes threatened this record. He has attempted 40 or more passes just 18 times in 46 regular-season starts.
This story was originally published March 31, 2021 at 12:13 PM.
