Here is who national experts are predicting will win Chiefs-Browns playoff game
Once upon a time, there was a narrative that the Chiefs couldn’t win playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium.
They went more than two decades between home playoff victories (six straight losses), but the script has flipped with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The Chiefs are 3-1 over the last two seasons in playoff games at home. Before that, they were 2-6 all-time at Arrowhead.
With Mahomes, the Chiefs have two wins in Divisional playoff games, and they have won both games convincingly, by an average score of 41-22.
Will that trend continue Sunday when the Chiefs play host to the Cleveland Browns in an AFC Divisional game? Here is what 74 national experts are saying about the game, which kicks off at 2:05 p.m. and will be broadcast on CBS (Ch. 5).
The Chiefs will win 34-30 says Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com. This is part of what he wrote: “There is a theory that the Chiefs have been playing possum all season, somehow only motivated enough to barely beat teams like the Falcons and Broncos. I don’t buy that, but I do believe the team that wins in Arrowhead has to present more defensive challenges to Patrick Mahomes than this Browns group is capable of, even with Denzel Ward and slot corner Kevin Johnson back this week.”
A Chiefs victory is the prediction from Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times. Here is an excerpt of what he wrote: “Cleveland’s offense has occasionally shown some burst — last week’s effort was the franchise’s highest-scoring postseason game since the 1954 N.F.L. championship — and the Browns can chew up the clock thanks to the superb combination of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But even Baker Mayfield’s most ardent believers should struggle to take him in a head-to-head matchup with Mahomes. The Browns aren’t pushovers, but they probably cannot do much to stand in Kansas City’s way.”
A 38-30 Chiefs win is the pick for the Sporting News’ Bill Bender. He wrote in part: “Don’t be surprised if Cleveland takes a first-quarter lead and can have success running the ball with Nick Chubb and former Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt against a Chiefs defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry. The Browns, however, have allowed 300 or more yards passing seven of their last eight games. Patrick Mahomes will hit Tyreek Hill for a pair of long TD passes in the second half, and the Chiefs will pressure Baker Mayfield to keep pace.”
The Chiefs will win say Mike Florio and Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. Smith predicts a 35-21 score. He wrote in part: “The Browns poured it on early and never looked back against the Steelers, but the well-rested Chiefs are simply the better team.” Florio sees a 35-24 score and wrote: “The best-case for the Browns includes slowing things down, shortening the game, and limiting the number of possessions that Kansas City will have. Even then, can Cleveland outscore a Kansas City team that always finds a way? It’s doubtful.”
A 41-33 Chiefs win is the prediction from Yardbarker’s Chris Mueller. This is an excerpt of what he wrote: “The Browns have the firepower to outscore the Chiefs, but that’s a task easier said than done. Kansas City should be licking their chops when they look at the Browns’ defense. Myles Garrett was quiet against the Steelers, and even with Ward back in Cleveland’s secondary, the Browns just don’t have the horses to keep up with Kansas City, even more so than most opposing defenses. The only thing that can realistically stop the Chiefs is themselves; Cleveland did intercept Ben Roethlisberger four times and pounce on a bad snap to score their first touchdown. If Patrick Mahomes doesn’t get sloppy and dig himself a hole, Kansas City should handle the Browns.”
Every one of the eight CBS Sports writers think the Chiefs will win: Jason La Canfora, Pete Prisco, John Breech, Dave Richard, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson, Jared Dubin and Jamey Eisenberg. Prisco sees a 37-23 score. This is part of what he wrote: “I expect a big day out of the Chiefs passing game. The Browns can run it, which will be the plan. But those plans can get wrecked when the Chiefs get the offense going. That will put a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to make plays in the passing game. I just don’t think the Browns can keep up. For that reason, the Chiefs will move on with an impressive offensive showing that will be a lot like their two playoff wins at home last year.”
All nine experts at ESPN think the Chiefs will win: Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Mina Kimes, Jason Reid, Laura Rutledge, Kevin Seifert, Dan Graziano, Damien Woody and Seth Wickersham.
The seven writers at USA Today think the Chiefs will win: Jarrett Bell (33-21 final score), Nate Davis (27-20), Jori Epstein (31-28), Mike Jones (37-28), Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (38-27), Lorenzo Reyes (31-27) and Tom Schad (38-24).
Stadium’s Mark Dominik, the former Buccaneers general manager, and former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer both see the Chiefs winning:
A Chiefs win is the pick from nine of 10 SB Nation writers: Kyle Posey, James Dator, Pete Sweeney, RJ Ochoa, Jenna Thomas, Ed Valentine, Brandon Lee Gowton, David Fucillo and Ameer Tyree. Picking the Browns: Alexis Chassen.
Five NFL broadcasters at Radio.com picked the Chiefs: Jesse Pantuosco, Jordan Cohn, Tim Kelly, John Healy and Dan Mennella.
Kyle Brandt and Kay Adams of “Good Morning Football” on the NFL Network predicted a Browns win, while Peter Schrager and Nate Burleson went with the Chiefs:
The 10 members of the Dallas Morning-News picked the Chiefs: Tim Cowlishaw, Michael Gehlken, Dana Larson, Damon Marx, Craig Miller, David Moore, John Owing, Newy Scruggs, Kevin Sherrington and Calvin Watkins.
Five of six writers at Sports Illustrated Monday Morning Quarterback see a Chiefs win: Gary Gramling, Mitch Goldic, Albert Breer, Jenny Vrentas and Conor Orr. The pick for Cleveland: Andrew Brandt
The three writers at Athlon Sports picked a Chiefs win: Rob Doster, Ben Weinrib and Bryan Fischer.
Three writers at The Star see the Chiefs winning: Blair Kerkhoff (35-24 final score), Vahe Gregorian (35-21) and Sam Mellinger (38-28).
On Undisputed, Skip Bayless said the Chiefs were ripe for an upset:
