What projection models and NFL writers say about Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances
The NFL playoffs open this weekend with the Chiefs in a familiar place: watching from home to see who they’ll play in the AFC Divisional round.
For the third straight season, the Chiefs earned a bye in the postseason. They finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL at 14-2 and they’re the defending Super Bowl champions.
Will they make it back to the Super Bowl and go for a second straight championship?
The projection models like their chances, but they also agree on who is the biggest threat to the Chiefs not lifting the Lamar Hunt trophy on Jan. 24. I have included a few predictions made by writers, too.
NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund
Chiefs’ chances of making Super Bowl LV: 46.5%
Second-best chance from AFC: Buffalo Bills, 23.5%
Least chance from the AFC: Cleveland Browns, 2.0%
Top NFC contender: Green Bay Packers, 36.3%
Worth noting: Frelund gives the Chiefs the best chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions at 23.5% (compared to 19.7% for the Packers). This is part of what she wrote: “This is more of a cool note than a super-predictive one, because I will give you more on Kansas City after its bye, but it is worth noting that the Chiefs’ Lombardi Trophy win percentage is exactly the same as the Bills’ chance to reach the Super Bowl, which exemplifies how valuable that bye is this season in the AFC.”
Football Outsiders
Chiefs’ chances of making Super Bowl LV: 46.3%
Second-best chance from AFC: Buffalo Bills, 32.9%
Least chance from the AFC: Cleveland Browns, 1.5%
Top NFC contender: Green Bay Packers, 44.6%
Worth noting: Football Outsiders gives the Packers a slight edge (24.3% to 24.1%) over the Chiefs of winning Super Bowl LV.
Playoff Status
Chiefs’ chances of making Super Bowl LV: 51%
Second-best chance from AFC: Buffalo Bills, 26%
Least chance from the AFC: Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns, 2%
Top NFC contender: Green Bay Packers, 48%
Worth noting: PlayoffStatus.com is the most bullish on the Chiefs’ chances of winning another Super Bowl, giving KC a 32% chance, compared with 21% for the Packers and 16% for the Bills.
Five Thirty Eight
Chiefs’ chances of making Super Bowl LV: 45%
Second-best chance from AFC: Buffalo Bills, 29%
Least chance from the AFC: Cleveland Browns, 2%
Top NFC contender: Green Bay Packers, 42%
Worth noting: FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Chiefs a 23% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Packers are at 21%.
Sporting News
This is not a projection, but four Sporting News reporters made playoff predictions, and three have the Chiefs winning Super Bowl LV: Vinnie Iyer (over Buccaneers), Bill Bender (over Packers) and Matt Lutovsky (over Packers). Bill Heyen has the Packers defeating the Bills.
CBS Sports
Jordan Dajani picked the results of all the postseason games and has the Chiefs beating the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game and then edging Green Bay 30-28 in Super Bowl LV.
ESPN
Bill Barnwell also forecast the outcomes of each playoff contest, and he sees the Chiefs losing 24-20 to the Saints in Super Bowl LV.
This story requires a subscription, but this is a snippet of what he wrote: “The Chiefs are always going to get theirs on offense, but if the Saints can turn a Chiefs red zone trip or two into field goals instead of touchdowns, the formula they used to try to beat Kansas City in December might actually work in February. I think the Saints are the most complete team in the league, which is why they’re my pick to win Super Bowl LV.”
Sports Illustrated
Six of eight writers who filled out a playoff bracket had the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl: Gary Gramling (over the Saints), Greg Bishop (over the Saints), Michael Rosenberg (over the Packers), Jenny Vrentas (over the Packers), Albert Breer (over the Saints) and Mitch Goldich (over the Packers).
Andrew Brandt and Conor Orr didn’t see the Chiefs making it to Super Bowl LV.
Gramling had Chris Jones as being Super Bowl MVP, while Vrentas wrote in part: ”The Chiefs have continued to find ways to win games all season. They are now what the Patriots were for most of this millennium, the team it was unwise to pick against. While Andy Reid had a long wait for his first ring as a head coach, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone in the NFL who does not think it will be a much shorter wait for his second.”
