Chiefs now have commanding lead in race for AFC’s top seed, projection models show
Sunday ended up being a very good day for the Chiefs.
First, the Chiefs took care of business and beat the Dolphins 33-27 in Miami. For KC, it was a key win against an AFC foe.
Nearly seven hours later, the Buffalo Bills downed the Steelers 26-15 as Pittsburgh suffered a second straight loss.
Now the Chiefs, 12-1, have the top spot in the AFC playoff field and hold the tiebreaker on the Steelers, 11-2.
How far did things swing on Sunday? At kickoff, the Chiefs had a 57% chance of being the top seed in the AFC playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. That jumped to 69% after beating Miami and, when the Steelers lost, the Chiefs’ chances leaped to 95%.
Here are what the projection models from PlayoffStatus.com, FiveThirtyEight.com, the New York Times and Football Outsiders are saying about each team’s chances to be the top seed in the AFC playoffs. I’ve thrown in the Bills and Browns, who each have three losses.
Chiefs
Record: 12-1
Conference record: 10-1
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: 97%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: 95%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via Football Outsiders: 93.6%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via New York Times: 88%
Steelers
Record: 11-2
Conference record: 8-1
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: 3%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: 5%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via Football Outsiders: 6.2%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via New York Times: 10%
Bills
Record: 10-3
Conference record: 7-2
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: <1%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: <1%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via Football Outsiders: 0.2%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via New York Times: 1%
Browns
Record: 9-3
Conference record: 6-3
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: <1%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: <1%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via Football Outsiders: 0%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via New York Times: <1%
