Oddly, the only thing that could keep Iowa State out of Big 12 title game is a KU win
Iowa State is all but assured of making the Big 12 championship game for the first time, regardless of whether the Cyclones beat West Virginia at home this Saturday.
But if you’re a Cyclones fan*, you know there is no sure thing. For some, Iowa State missing a 24-yard field goal that would have clinched a spot in the 2004 title game still stings.
*Full disclosure, I’m an Iowa State graduate
Iowa State again controls its fate. Beat the Mountaineers and they’ll be the regular-season champions and play in the Big 12 title game.
Should the Cyclones lose Saturday, they could fall into a three-way tie for first place with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Strangely, a Kansas victory in the Jayhawks’ season finale could cost the Cyclones a spot in the championship game.
More on that later. Let’s take a closer look at the race.
- Iowa State is 7-1 in conference with only West Virginia left to play.
- Oklahoma State is 5-2 in the Big 12 with games at TCU and at Baylor remaining.
- Oklahoma is 5-2 in conference play and is home to Baylor and at West Virginia.
If the Cyclones lose, while the Cowboys and Sooners win out, all three will be 7-2 in Big 12 games.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head games. Since Iowa State, OU and Oklahoma State are all 1-1 against each other, it would go to the next tiebreaker, which according to the Big 12 rulebook is the conference records for the three teams “compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.”
That is, how the three teams fared against the fourth-place finisher in Big 12, then the fifth-place team, then sixth, etc.
This is where things get really weird, especially if Kansas State beats Texas this Saturday. There is a chance K-State, Texas and West Virginia could finish tied for fourth with a 5-4 record (if the Longhorns top Kansas in the season finale).
The Sooners, Cyclones and Cowboys would each be 2-1 against that trio of teams and would have beaten the rest of the teams in the Big 12.
So it would go to the next tiebreaker: Scoring differential among the tied teams in their games.
Iowa State beat the Sooners 37-30, but lost to Oklahoma State 24-21. Oklahoma defeated the Cowboys 41-13. So Oklahoma would be plus-21, the Cyclones plus-4 and the Cowboys minus-25, leaving Oklahoma State out of the title game.
Crazy, right? But it really could be that close.
From Iowa State’s standpoint, Texas sweeping the Sunflower State opponents to end the season could be a good thing. The Longhorns would finish all alone in fourth place in the Big 12, and because the Cyclones and Sooners beat Texas, they’d be in the championship game.
This race can trend a number of different ways because of the tight competition for fourth in the Big 12. But here’s the nightmare scenario for Iowa State: West Virginia beats the Cyclones, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State win out, and Texas loses K-State and Kansas.
That would create a tie for fourth place with West Virginia and K-State, which would be broken by the Mountaineers’ win in October. Because the Sooners and Cowboys beat West Virginia, they’d be in the title game.
ESPN said Saturday the Cyclones had a 99% chance of making the title game and it appears the only way Iowa State misses out is if Texas loses to both KU and K-State.
A Jayhawks’ win over Texas seems remote. Still, it would be a weird way for the Cyclones to miss out on the title game.
Most important of all: If Iowa State wins Saturday, none of this will matter. The Cyclones will be regular-season champs and in the championship game.
This story was originally published December 3, 2020 at 8:36 AM.
