Here is who national experts are predicting will win Super Bowl LIV
The wait is over.
A mere 18,284 days since the Chiefs last played in the Super Bowl, they will take the field Sunday in Miami with a chance to win the big game for the second time in franchise history.
For quite a few Chiefs fans, it will be a surreal scene when Patrick Mahomes leads the team on the field at Hard Rock Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers.
Will the Chiefs win? A whopping 169 experts from around the nation made predictions for Sunday’s game and a majority say yes. Here are the picks and what they’re saying about the game, which starts at 5:30 p.m. and will be broadcast on Fox (Ch. 4):
Peter King of Football Morning In America is predicting a 30-28 Chiefs win ... with a caveat. King said in part: “I have been totally on the fence. When I flew down here, I said, ‘I’m picking the 49ers. I love the 49ers. I love their pass rush.’ What changed me is all the impromptu plays that Patrick Mahomes makes and the speed of his weaponry, and the fact that I think Damien Williams is going to be a very big factor in this game. That changed me, but I would not be remotely surprised if the 49ers win by 14 or the Chiefs by win 14.”
Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times sees a 30-27 win for the 49ers. Here is an excerpt of what he wrote: “Oddsmakers were right to make this a close call, and a few breaks either way could easily decide the game for either team. The clearest path to a win, assuming both teams play well, is for San Francisco’s defensive line to rush Mahomes into a few less-than-ideal throws, which could lead to an interception, while potentially coming up with a strip-sack along the way.”
Sixty-eight of ESPN’s 108 writers/analysts/editors are predicting a Chiefs victory, including Chris Mortensen (final score: 35-34), Matt Hasselbeck (33-32), Suzy Kolber (31-27), Randy Moss (42-38), Sage Steele (38-24), Trey Wingo (34-31) and Chris Berman (35-32). Among those picking the 49ers are Adam Schefter (31-24), Rex Ryan (28-27) and Steve Levy (24-17).
Six of the eight CBS Sports experts believe the Chiefs will win: Ryan Wilson, Jason La Canfora, Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, Jamey Eisenberg and Will Brinson. The picks for the 49ers: Dave Richard and John Breech. Prisco predicted a 31-17 Chiefs victory. This is part of what wrote: “Add it all up, and it’s a tough game to pick. That’s why the line is as close as it is. The teams are so even, but in the end I think it always comes down to quarterback play, and Mahomes is the elite player in this game.”
The Chiefs are picked to win by for both Mike Florio and Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. Smith sees a 34-31 final score. This is an excerpt of what he wrote: “The 49ers will, of course, bring some pressure on Mahomes and make it hard on him to find open receivers, but I think he’ll rise to the occasion. With Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins able to stretch the field, I think Mahomes is going to hit several deep balls. If he has time to pass, he’s going to make the 49ers’ defense pay.” Florio is predicting a 30-27 final. Here is part of what he wrote: “So here’s the question: Can Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and company get to Mahomes before Mahomes spots one of his various receivers wide-ass open in the San Fran secondary? Given that Mahomes never stops moving (making it much harder to track him down than a guy who settles into the pocket), I’m betting that Mahomes will be as elusive against the 49ers as he has been against pretty much every team (when healthy), and that the 49ers won’t be able to keep him from gaining yards and scoring points.”
Twenty-two writers for NFL.com made picks and 14 predicted a Chiefs victory: Joe Thomas (35-31 final score), Judy Battista (27-24), Gregg Rosenthal (37-34), Ali Bhanpuri (31-24), David Carr (35-31), Jeff Chadiha (31-27), Maurice Jones-Drew (42-38), Gennaro Filice (34-21), Dan Parr (27-17), Adam Rank (41-35, OT), James Jones (35-31), Gil Brandt (38-34), Jeremy Bergman (27-24) and Willie McGinest (34-31). San Francisco was the choice for Brian Baldinger (28-24), Tom Blair (42-41), Nick Shook (24-21), Marc Sessler (36-30, OT), Brooke Cersosimo (42-41), Jim Trotter (31-27), Charley Casserly (28-24), DeAngelo Hall (35-24). Each writer gave a reason for their pick and predicted a game MVP. You can read those here. Here is what Adam Rank wrote: “Obviously the focus will be on Patrick Mahomes and what he will be able to do against this vaunted 49ers defense. But Mahomes hasn’t done it alone. Damien Williams has been great with nine scrimmage touchdowns in five playoff games. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are one of the best receiving duos in the game. And the Chiefs’ defense has played well, too, which is a strange thing to point out, considering I believe this will be a high-scoring affair.” He picked Mahomes to win MVP.
The 49ers will prevail 31-27 writes Tadd Haislop of the Sporting News. This is a snippet of his reasoning: “Largely because of the Patrick Mahomes factor, we understand why Super Bowl 54 between the 49ers and Chiefs is being framed as a clash of spectacular offense in Kansas City and smothering defense in San Francisco. Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP, also heavily impacts the point spread, which opened at 1 1/2 in favor of the Chiefs. Yet this Super Bowl narrative omits an important fact. As great as Kansas City has been all season offensively — with Mahomes fighting back from his midseason knee injury through the second half of the year and refining his connections with the likes of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson — San Francisco has been even better.”
Six of the 11 writers for Sports Illustrated Monday Morning Quarterback see the Chiefs winning: Bette Marston (28-17 final score), Mitch Goldich (34-26), Gary Gramling (38-34), Charlotte Wilder (41-34), Michael Rosenberg (27-20) and Jenny Vrentas (31-24). Picking the 49ers were Andrew Brandt (27-18), Kaylen Kahler (38-35), Conor Orr (30-28), Greg Bishop (28-24), Albert Breer (27-24). Each writer gave a reason for their pick and an MVP prediction. Here is what Vrentas wrote: “The Chiefs got off to slow starts in their first two playoff games but the counterpoint to that is they reminded us they can score in a flash. Perhaps the most important matchup of Super Bowl LIV is how Kansas City handles the San Francisco pass rush, who can mix and match different pieces for any situation.” Her MVP choice was Mahomes.
Four of seven writers from USA Today picked the Chiefs: Jori Epstein (35-20 final score), Mike Jones (35-27), Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (31-28) and Tom Schad (37-35). The picks for San Francisco: Jarrett Bell (31-27), Nate Davis (27-23) and Lorenzo Reyes (27-23).
Half of the eight SB Nation writers are taking the Chiefs: Christian D’Andrea, Morgan Moriarty, Geoff Schwartz and Adam Stites. The pick for the 49ers: Sarah Hardy, James Brady, Stephen White and Kyle Posey.
This story was originally published February 2, 2020 at 6:36 AM.
