With Chiefs in hunt for a bye in AFC playoffs, here are contenders’ schedules, odds
Four weeks remain in the NFL’s regular season and five teams have a chance of finishing as the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
That includes the Chiefs.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, if the Chiefs win their remaining four games, they would have a 41% chance of earning a first-round bye. Win out, and the Chiefs would have a 6% shot of landing the top seed in the AFC through the playoffs.
Imagine how Lloyd Christmas would react to those odds.
Here is a quick look at the AFC race with much to be determined:
Baltimore Ravens
Record: 10-2
Current seed: First
Record vs. AFC: 6-2
Record vs. AFC Division leaders: 2-1
Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Jets, at Browns, vs. Steelers
Strength of schedule (via tankathon.com): .521 (16th most difficult)
Chance of being No. 1 seed via PlayoffStatus.com: 56%
Chance of a first-round bye via FiveThirtyEight.com: 95%
What NBC Sports is saying: “Eight straight wins and no sign of slowing down after beating the 49ers on Sunday.”
What USA Today is saying: “They beat the 49ers in dramatic fashion in what might prove a Super Bowl LIV preview, QB Lamar Jackson continuing to rewrite record book in the process.”
Outcomes that would most help the Ravens (from PlayoffStatus.com): Broncos beat Texans, Ravens beat Bills, Chiefs beat Patriots.
New England Patriots
Record: 10-2
Current seed: Second
Record vs. AFC: 6-2
Record vs. AFC Division leaders: 0-2
Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, at Bengals, vs. Bills, vs. Dolphins.
Strength of schedule (via tankathon.com): .438 (24th most difficult)
Chance of being No. 1 seed via PlayoffStatus.com: 39%
Chance of a first-round bye via FiveThirtyEight.com: 85%
What NBC Sports is saying: “Some may wonder if the Patriots’ offense is a fatal flaw, but any final conclusions will wait until January.”
What USA Today is saying: “Getting manhandled by Houston not only costs them No. 1 seed, it also means they suddenly have to worry about fending off the closing Bills if they’re to win division.”
Outcomes that would most help the Patriots (from PlayoffStatus.com): Broncos beat Texans, Ravens beat Bills, Patriots beat Chiefs.
Houston Texans
Record: 8-4
Current seed: Third
Record vs. AFC: 7-2
Record vs. AFC Division leaders: 2-1
Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Titans, at Buccaneers, vs. Titans
Strength of schedule (via tankathon.com): .479 (21st most difficult)
Chance of being No. 1 seed via PlayoffStatus.com: 1%
Chance of a first-round bye via FiveThirtyEight.com: 5%
What NBC Sports is saying: “A big win on Sunday night keeps the Texans on top of the AFC South.”
What USA Today is saying: “Division hardly a guarantee yet with both matchups against Titans (7-5) still down the road.”
Outcomes that would most help the Texans (from PlayoffStatus.com): Buccaneers beat Colts, Texans beat Broncos, Chiefs beat Patriots.
Chiefs
Record: 8-4
Current seed: 4th
Record vs. AFC: 6-3
Record vs. AFC Division leaders: 1-1
Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Broncos, at Bears, vs. Chargers.
Strength of schedule (via tankathon.com): .500, (19th most difficult)
Chance of being No. 1 seed via PlayoffStatus.com: 1%
Chance of a first-round bye via FiveThirtyEight.com: 9%
What NBC Sports is saying: “A division title isn’t assured, but it isn’t in much doubt either.”
What USA Today is saying: “A victory at New England next Sunday could rekindle hopes of a playoff bye.”
Outcomes that would most help the Chiefs (from PlayoffStatus.com): Broncos beat Texans, Bills beat Ravens and Chiefs beat Patriots.
Buffalo Bills
Record: 9-3
Current seed: Fifth
Record vs. AFC: 6-2
Record vs. AFC Division leaders: 0-1
Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Steelers, at Patriots, vs. Jets
Strength of schedule (via tankathon.com): .646 (3rd most difficult)
Chance of being No. 1 seed via PlayoffStatus.com: 3%
Chance of a first-round bye via FiveThirtyEight.com: 5%
What NBC Sports is saying: “They just keep winning, which makes this week’s date with the Ravens an interesting one.”
What USA Today is saying: “Dismantling Dallas allows them to continue padding wild-card lead ahead of Week 14 date with Ravens.”
Outcomes that would most help the Bills (from PlayoffStatus.com): Bills beat Ravens, Chiefs beat Patriots.
Other notes
- The Steelers, 7-5, hold the second wild-card spot, but the Titans also have a 7-5 record. Pittsburgh has a superior record against AFC opponents (6-3 for Pittsburgh to Tennessee’s 7-4).
- Both the Raiders and Colts have a 6-6 record and are in the hunt.
