Win Probability Charts from last three Chiefs-Titans games are remarkably similar
An ESPN story notes that bookmakers across the country say more than $10 million shifted after the Chiefs coughed up a fourth-quarter lead and lost 35-32 to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
Most of the bets were on the Chiefs, ESPN reported, and those gamblers had to feel pretty good when Kansas City held a five-point lead and lined up to try a field goal with fewer than 2 minutes to play.
But a series of unfortunate events turned the tide and the Titans ended up winning the game. Change one of these things and the outcome might have swung to the Chiefs favor in the last 100 seconds: Ryan Tannehill’s long run, Dustin Colquitt’s intentional grounding, James Winchester’s inadvertent snap or the blocked field-goal attempt.
This GIF of the Win Probability Chart from Twitter user Lee Sharpe shows just how dramatically things changed for the Chiefs:
Here’s the thing: the Chiefs have suffered similar fates in their previous two games against Tennessee.
Remember the 19-17 loss to the Titans on Dec. 18, 2016? The Chiefs lost on a last-second field goal after having a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Then there was the 22-21 loss in the playoffs following the 2017 season. The Chiefs had an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter of that game.
The Chiefs have lost four straight to the Titans, including three by a combined six points.
Win Probability Charts from those three games look similar, with the Chiefs having anywhere from an 83.1% to 98.2% to win. Here they are from Twitter user Jake Mackey:
If you can’t view the three in that tweet, here are the last three Win Probability Charts for the Chiefs-Titans games:
