OU or Ohio State? Debate rages ahead of College Football Playoff rankings release

Here’s the interesting part of what is sure to be a closely watched College Football Playoff rankings release on Tuesday: little attention will be paid to the top four teams.

No, those are likely to be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Georgia.

After that, all eyes will be on the fifth spot, and you’d think No. 4 Michigan’s blowout loss at Ohio State would open the door for Oklahoma to move to No. 5.

That’s important, because Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC championship game and should the Crimson Tide win, that should clear a spot for another team in the College Football Playoff.

If the Sooners can avenge a loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game, they might seem to be in prime position to be in the playoff. Might. But the Buckeyes’ big win over Michigan has some pundits believing Ohio State will leap from No. 10 to No. 5 on Tuesday night and then ascend to the playoff with a win over Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game and a Georgia loss.*

*Whew, that’s a lot of speculation, right? Of course it is, but that’s part of the fun of sports.

You can bet that after the rankings are released Tuesday night there will be a lot of chatter about whether Ohio State or Oklahoma should be ranked higher and which team would deserve a spot in the playoffs if one opens.

Here is what some national pundits are saying.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports predicted the Buckeyes would end up at No. 5 in Tuesday’s rankings. He wrote in part: “The Buckeyes have not looked like a playoff contender at any time over the last half of the season, but they saved their best for last. Ohio State annihilated Michigan 62-39 in a game that was not as close as the score would indicate.”

Kyle Koster of The Big Lead said Ohio State shouldn’t move ahead of Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff rankings. Here is an excerpt: “Rewind to last Friday. Oklahoma was No. 6. Ohio State was No. 10. The Sooners went on the road and posted an impressive win over West Virginia. The Buckeyes stayed home and laid a biblical beatdown on hated Michigan. One of those wins — the latter — was a bit more impressive. But was it enough to paper over a season full of sleepwalking, a 29-point road loss to Purdue? A near-miss against lowly Maryland just seven days earlier that required a quarterback mis-fire to an open receiver in overtime?

“We’ll find out (Tuesday night). If Ohio State somehow leapfrogs Oklahoma, the game is rigged. It won’t be on merit. And it will render this weekend’s conference championship games largely meaningless. If the Buckeyes handle Northwestern as expected, they’ll be in, no matter what the Sooners do.”

Erick Smith of USA Today believes the Buckeyes will get in the playoff field. He wrote in part: “How will the committee compare Oklahoma and Ohio State? Both are imperfect teams with elite offenses and suspect defenses. The Sooners are more positive and negative in those two categories.

“OU also has a better loss — to Texas — which would have been avenged in the Big 12 title game. The Buckeyes, who were routed by Purdue, would have the better win — a thrashing of Michigan - and appear to be peaking at the right time.

“The rankings Tuesday will provide greater insight into their thinking. Oklahoma was previously four spots ahead of the Ohio State. The difference will surely narrow. And with a win against Northwestern, look for the Buckeyes to get into their field.”

Chuck Culpepper of the Washington Post wrote in part: “If Oklahoma can run past Texas this time, Ohio State can thwart Northwestern and Alabama can handle Georgia, it could come down to that Ohio State-Oklahoma chatter.

“Then we’d all have to weigh Ohio State’s opponents (currently 67-77) against Oklahoma’s (72-69). We’d have to say Ohio State has the best win (over Michigan). We’d have to say at least Oklahoma never got mauled (as Ohio State did at Purdue). Each beat two ranked teams (at the moment). That Oklahoma escape of Army (9-2) way back when looks stouter all the time. That Oklahoma defense, yielding 189 points the last four games, does not look stouter all the time, and may offend some of the retired coaches on the committee right down to their core.”

Wayne Staats of NCAA.com predicted Ohio State would leap Oklahoma in the rankings this week. He wrote of the Buckeyes: “We think the Buckeyes’ dominant win against then-No. 4 Michigan will be the difference in the end.”

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated wrote an article with the headline: “Ohio State or Oklahoma? The stage is set for 2018’s ultimate playoff debate.”

Here is an excerpt: “Oklahoma versus Ohio State might be one of the most fun on-field matchups of the season. Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray and Haskins against two defenses that alternate between allowing explosive plays and causing momentum-shifting turnovers would be a blast to watch. Unfortunately, this competition probably won’t play out on the field. It’ll play out on barstools, in barber shops, on sports talk radio and—most importantly—in a conference room at the Gaylord Texan hotel in Grapevine, Texas. The committee will debate the merits of those teams this week, but don’t expect Ohio State to jump Oklahoma. But if the Sooners win ugly against Texas at JerryWorld and Ohio State cruises, we could see a repeat of 2014. That’s when a 59–0 Ohio State win against Wisconsin convinced the committee that the one-loss Buckeyes were a better choice at No. 4 than either Baylor or TCU, which each had a loss and shared the Big 12 title.

Heather Dinich of ESPN.com wrote a story with the headline, “If it comes down to Oklahoma and Ohio State for No. 4, who’s in?”

Here is an excerpt: “Until Saturday, there wasn’t much if any comparison between Ohio State and Oklahoma.

“Now?

“Ohio State has the better win — but the worse loss.

“Oklahoma has the better offense — but a worse defense.

“Both teams have three wins against Power 5 opponents with winning records, including two CFP Top 25 teams. They are extremely close in ESPN’s strength-of-record metric, as the average Top 25 team would have just an 8 percent chance of going 11-1 or better against Ohio State’s opponents and a 10.8 percent chance to do the same with the Sooners’ schedule.

“Both have electric quarterbacks who have shouldered their teams to this point. They also have a common opponent in TCU, a factor the committee considers, and even that was somewhat similar, as Ohio State’s defense allowed the Horned Frogs 28 points and the Sooners allowed 27.

“The Sooners’ 59-56 win on Friday night over West Virginia was their best of the season ... but Ohio State’s win on Saturday was better.”

This story was originally published November 27, 2018 at 1:19 PM.