For Pete's Sake

Royals in the playoffs? At this point, some projections say yes

Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer was congratulated after his home run during Sunday’sgame against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium.
Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer was congratulated after his home run during Sunday’sgame against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. jsleezer@kcstar.com

How can you tell that we’ve moved from spring to summer?

Aside from the stifling heat, the baseball projections are much, much kinder to the Royals at this time of the year. Before the season, no one gave the Royals much of a chance to make the playoffs.

But things have changed. Of course, it helps that the Royals’ record is 50-47 and they are tied for the second wild-card spot.

Maybe that’s why FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight see the Royals in the playoffs at this point, although it is a tenuous grip. The Rays and Rangers are right in the hunt with the Royals in the projections, with the Twins and Angels not far behind.

Baseball Prospectus sees the Royals just missing out on the second wild card to the Rays.

There are a couple of interesting things to note about these projections.

1. The Royals are not projected to win more than 82 games.

2. None of the projections give them much of a chance at winning the AL Central, even though the Royals are just 1  1/2 games behind the Indians.

Here are the latest projections:

FANGRAPHS

Projected final record: 82-80

In the playoff field: Yes

Chance of making the playoffs: 34.6 percent

Chance of winning the AL Central: 6.3 percent

Chance of winning the World Series: 0.6 percent

Preseason prediction: 75-87

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS

Projected final record: 81-81

In the playoff field: No (behind Rays)

Chance of making the playoffs: 26.6 percent

Chance of winning the AL Central: 8.5 percent

Chance of winning the World Series: 0.6 percent

Preseason prediction: 71-91

FiveThirtyEight

Projected final record: 82-80

In playoff field: Yes

Chance of making the playoffs: 36 percent

Chance of winning the AL Central: 19 percent

Chance of winning the World Series: 1 percent

Pete Grathoff: 816-234-4330, @pgrathoff

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