No margin for error for Big 12 in football playoff chase

The Big 12 has itself a glorious run into the College Football Playoff.

Or a repeat of the empty-bracket feeling of 2014.

Those are the choices based on the back-loading of the conference football schedule.

The Big 12 has separated into distinct classes, with Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma residing in their own sphere, part of the national championship conversation, and everybody else thinking about a brighter future.

It has come to this because the Big 12 schedule grid dumped all of its marquee matchups into November, starting with Saturday’s TCU-at-Oklahoma State game.

Baylor avoided an upset bid and superb game plan by Kansas State on Thursday. The Bears won 31-24 but not easily, as the Wildcats played enough ball control early to keep the nation’s top offensive team — which entered the game averaging 61 points and 686 yards — off the field.

Also, the game marked the first start for freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham, taking over for injured Seth Russell. A newbie behind center against a well-coached team on the road had upset possibilities. And K-State had the ball at the end, but a third turnover ended the final possession and sealed the outcome.

The Wildcats have finished playing the Big 12 contenders, who now will do battle with each other over the season’s final month. If any of the contenders can navigate cleanly through — including one-loss Oklahoma — it should be one of the final four teams standing in the College Football Playoff ranking.

That list debuted last week, and the Big 12 felt the same chill as the end of last season.

No Big 12 team was found until Baylor at No. 6. TCU was ranked eighth, Oklahoma State No. 14 and Oklahoma No. 15.

Two one-loss teams — Alabama and Notre Dame — checked in ahead of the Bears and Horned Frogs.

Those rankings disagree with the wire-service polls that have Baylor second, and TCU third (coaches) and fifth (Associated Press).

The Big 12 has all of November to play itself into contention. Based on scheduling, the Cowboys would seem to have the best chance. All their games against the contenders are in Stillwater.

The final two weekends could decide the conference. On Nov. 21, TCU visits Oklahoma, and Baylor plays at Oklahoma State. The next weekend the teams switch opponents, with the Frogs and Bears meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, on the Friday after Thanksgiving and Bedlam the next day at Oklahoma State.

Although no other conference has as many marquee matches down the stretch, and the Big 12 should deliver some wildly entertaining product, it also means emerging unscathed through the gantlet will be an arduous task.

It’s true that playing the mid- and lower-level league competition has given the Big 12 a top-heavy look, but it also increases the chance of late losses.

And nothing kills teams in rankings like late losses. There’s little or no time to rebuild a resume, and an undefeated team that loses late has to count on other contenders falling later.

It occurred in the first three years of the 10-team Big 12, with Oklahoma State falling late in 2011, Kansas State in 2012 and Baylor in 2013. In each instance, the Big 12 lost a chance to play for the national championship.

Doubling the size of the field for the inaugural College Football Playoff didn’t help the Big 12, with Baylor and TCU, each with one loss, left off the bracket in favor of three other one-loss teams.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby attended Thursday’s game at Bill Snyder Family Stadium and said his league was in “a perfect position” to make a move in the College Football Playoff rankings. He’s right. If any one of the four contenders wins out, a semifinal spot should be the reward.

But the Big 12 also may have left itself no margin for error.

This story was originally published November 5, 2015 at 10:29 PM with the headline "No margin for error for Big 12 in football playoff chase."