What is Rick Barnes’ future at Texas?

Rick Barnes’ uncertain future is head-scratch worthy to many in college basketball.

Could Texas really be unhappy with a coach who entered this season with 15 NCAA Tournament appearances in 16 years and has won more games than any coach in Big 12 history?

Yes, enough for reporters from Texas to ask Barnes point blank about his level of optimism about his future.

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“Why wouldn’t I be?” Barnes said. “I got my contract extended a year ago.”

He did, by new athletic director Steve Patterson, through 2018-19 in a show of faith would seem to assure stability.

Still, the talk swirls, and although Barnes said his security becomes a topic only when asked by the media, it’s asked by the media because enough fans have made it a topic.

The volume turned up this season because of the Longhorns’ expectations. In 2014, Texas won 24, improving by eight games. The Longhorns defeated Arizona State in a dramatic NCAA Tournament game before falling in the next round.

With nearly everybody returning, plus heralded freshman Myles Turner joining the roster, Texas was projected to finish second in the Big 12 behind always-first Kansas this season.

The season started well. The only loss in 11 games came at Kentucky, and the Longhorns were competitive against the Wildcats.

Then turbulence hit. Guard Isaiah Taylor had already missed a few games because of a wrist injury and would be gone for 10. The Longhorns had to reprogram, first adjusting to his absence, then his return.

Guard Javan Felix and Jonathan Holmes missed games because of concussions, and the Longhorns looked out of sorts for stretches in the season. Twice, Texas endured four-game losing streaks and entered Wednesday’s Big 12 Tournament opener against Texas Tech with a 19-12 record.

Victories in their last two regular-season games, including an overtime thriller over Baylor, have the Longhorns pointed in the right direction and into the NCAA Tournament. And they stayed on course with a 65-53 win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament on Wednesday.

Firing a coach after an NCAA Tournament appearance isn’t unprecedented. Take Barnes’ counterpart in the Sprint Center on Wednesday. Tubby Smith went 1-1 in the NCAA Tournament in 2013 and was sent packing by Minnesota.

Not good enough is the primary argument against Barnes. His 17 Texas teams have produced three Big 12 titles, one outright in his first year and two shared with Kansas. There hasn’t been a conference tournament trophy but six losses in championship games.

The NCAA Tournament performance is the bigger gripe. Barnes has produced one Final Four team and two other regional finalists in Austin. The percentages simply aren’t good enough, and the best seasons are becoming smaller in the rear view mirror.

What should Texas be?

Kansas? Basketball will never be that important in Austin.

Florida? Closer. The Gators are college sports’ best example of competing at the highest level in football and men’s basketball. Florida has had down years in both sports recently but has proved national titles in the major sports aren’t mutually exclusive.

Baylor? This one hurts. The Bears have won nine of the last 15 meetings after Texas had won 24 in a row.

But firing Barnes comes with the familiar warning: Be careful what you wish for. Barnes is the rarest of coaches, a consistent winner. How many Division I programs would take 15 NCAAs in 16 years? Nearly all.

Know this about Texas and its $165 million athletic budget. The Longhorns aspire to win national championships in every sport they sponsor. In the Big 12 era, there have been titles in football, baseball, volleyball, golf, track and swimming. Men’s basketball got to within one game of playing for a title in 2003. One near title shot in 16 years.

The guess here is Barnes will be back next season but he will not survive another below-expectation season in 2016.

This story was originally published March 11, 2015 at 9:59 PM with the headline "What is Rick Barnes’ future at Texas?."