Sporting KC and the postseason: a breakdown of where things stand as MLS goes to PPG

Peter Vermes remained relatively tight-lipped Friday afternoon in the wake of Major League Soccer announcing that the 2020 regular season will be decided by points per game.

It’s a move that hasn’t been made in the league since 2001, when the September 11 attacks on the U.S. resulted in cancellation of the regular season’s final week of fixtures. Some teams finished the season having played 26 games and other teams 27 that year.

Although the longest-tenured coach in MLS certainly has his thoughts about the decision, his only reaction to it was a wry smile followed by him saying “Yeah, (I have thoughts), but probably not willing to share.”

He went as far as to say one of his least favorite phrases — “it is what it is” — and admitted that Sporting Kansas City can do nothing but win its final two games and “play the voodoo dolls.”

The decision to decide this atypical season in an atypical way comes primarily because of the Colorado Rapids’ one-month layoff due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the team.

The Rapids have played just 15 games so far this season because of cancellations. That number falls far short of the rest of the league, with every other team having played between 19 and 21 games.

One of those canceled games for Colorado was against Sporting Kansas City on Oct. 20. And with MLS moving toward a points-per-game system and a desire to forge ahead straight into the MLS Cup Playoffs, there doesn’t seem to be any indication Colorado will make up those missed games.

Although Colorado’s woes don’t seem wholly relevant to Sporting Kansas City, that one missed game against could have huge ramifications as Sporting continues to fight for seeding in the Western Conference.

Here’s the Western Conference as of Oct. 30, sorted by the ordinary method of overall points. Sporting KC sits one point atop the table, but the Seattle Sounders hold a game in hand over Sporting KC

Factoring in points per game at this stage of the season would see Minnesota leapfrog LAFC and Seattle take the first-place position away from Kansas City. That’s what the official MLS standings currently show.

Sporting KC: 20 games, 36 points, 1.8 ppg

Seattle: 19 games, 35 points, 1.84 ppg

Portland: 20 games, 35 points, 1.75 ppg

LAFC: 20 games, 31 points, 1.55 ppg

Minnesota: 19 games, 30 points, 1.58 ppg

But with the league not offering to make up lost games, the Portland Timbers are now scheduled to play one more game than the rest of the top five in the conference — Seattle and KC have two games left on the schedule; Portland has three.Typically, as Vermes would say, “it is what it is” in that situation. Both Seattle and Minnesota have games in hand, and that will even itself out by the end of the season.

Of course, while Portland could drop points in that extra game, a victory only increases the club’s points-per-game total, providing a small boost for the Timbers.

Let’s say the top three teams win their final slate of games — due to Kansas City facing Minnesota and Portland facing LAFC. This is what the final standings would look like.

Seattle: 22 games, 44 points, 2 ppg

Portland: 23 games, 44 points, 1.913 ppg

Sporting KC: 22 games, 42 points, 1.909 ppg

Minnesota: 22 games, 36 points, 1.64 ppg

LAFC: 22 games, 34 points, 1.55 ppg

If the Timbers didn’t have that extra game, they would drop back in behind Kansas City with 41 points on an equal 22 games. But because of the extra game, the Timbers gain a spot over KC.Although there is no drastic change, and Seattle would take the No. 1 seed — just as it would be on course to do in a normal season — Portland narrowly jumps ahead of Kansas City via points per game.

“For us, we have to win ... and even in that world, we don’t control our own destiny,” Vermes said. “Normally you do, with the same number of games as everyone else, but in this current time, that doesn’t even help because at this moment we’re not making up the game against Colorado that we missed.”

This story was originally published October 30, 2020 at 4:12 PM with the headline "Sporting KC and the postseason: a breakdown of where things stand as MLS goes to PPG."