What experts, oddsmakers and Star staff think of Sporting KC’s chances to win MLS Cup
When Sporting Kansas City embarks on the MLS postseason Sunday, it will do so from a bit of an unusual position, at least recently.
As the favorite.
Sporting KC is the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, its first time earning the top seed since 2012, when it was still in the Eastern Conference. Sporting KC has a bye from the knockout round this week and awaits its opponent in the conference semifinals, which begin Sunday.
So how long will Sporting’s stay in the playoffs last?
Let’s start with the math, and then we’ll get to the predictions.
The website FiveThirtyEight gives Sporting KC a 19 percent chance to win the MLS Cup, the third best odds behind Eastern Conference teams Atlanta and New York Red Bulls, which are tied at 23 percent. Sporting KC is the clear favorite in the West, according to the website, with a 40 percent chance of reaching the MLS Cup Final. Seattle, the No. 2 seed in the conference, is a distant second there at 24 percent.
The wagers in Vegas are less kind, offering Sporting KC 10-to-1 odds to win the MLS championship, per Bovada. Atlanta and New York Red Bulls are listed at 3-to-1. Seattle, New York City FC and Los Angeles FC join Sporting at 10-to-1.
As for the predictions...
Sam Mellinger, The Star columnist: Sporting KC loses to Atlanta in MLS Cup Final. Sporting has its best club since the 2013 champs, but its playoff success has been tied so tightly to home field advantage. Going with history here.
Sam McDowell, The Star’s Sporting KC beat writer: Sporting KC loses to New York Red Bulls in MLS Cup Final. Sporting is the team no one in the West wants to see. It can beat you in multiple ways — the best comprehensive attack its had in Peter Vermes’ tenure or a defense that allowed the third fewest goals in MLS. Having said that, if SKC has to travel for the MLS Cup Final, it will be an underdog.
Stu Holden, Fox Sports commentator: Sporting KC defeats New York Red Bulls to win MLS Cup
Alexi Lalas, Fox Sports soccer analyst: Sporting KC loses to Seattle in conference finals
Jason Davis, SiriusXM soccer commentator: Sporting KC loses to Seattle in conference finals
Jimmy Conrad, former Sporting KC defender, member of team’s hall of fame: Sporting KC defeats New York Red Bulls to win MLS Cup
Graham Ruthven, The Guardian: Sporting KC defeats DC United to win MLS Cup
Graham Parker, The Guardian: Sporting KC defeats New York Red Bulls to win MLS Cup
Matt Doyle, MLSsoccer.com: Sporting KC loses to Portland in conference semifinals
Andrew Wiebe, MLSsoccer.com: Sporting KC loses to Seattle in conference finals
Calen Carr, MLSsoccer.com: Sporting KC loses to Seattle in conference finals
Bobby Warshaw, MLSsoccer.com: Sporting KC loses to New York Red Bulls in MLS Cup Final
Sam McDowell
Sam McDowell covers Sporting Kansas City, the Royals, Chiefs and sports enterprise for The Star
This story was originally published November 1, 2018 at 2:12 PM with the headline "What experts, oddsmakers and Star staff think of Sporting KC’s chances to win MLS Cup."