If the Chiefs hold onto their first-round NFL Draft selection, that player could be expected to play in 12 games and start nine this fall.
He’ll have about a 40 percent chance of making the Pro Bowl at some point in his career.
That’s the 10-year average of No. 28 overall draft selections — the Chiefs’ spot — in the previous 10 years.
Every player selected at No. 28 since 2006 started at least once. Half of them started at least 10 games as a rookie.
Last year the Lions selected Duke guard Laken Tomlinson at No. 28, and he started 14 games. The previous season the Panthers took Florida State wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, and he turned in a big rookie year with 73 receptions and nine touchdowns. Benjamin tore an ACL last August and didn’t play in 2015.
The most successful of the No. 28 bunch over the past decade, based on Pro Bowl appearances, is tackle Joe Staley, selected by the 49ers in 2007. Staley has appeared in five Pro Bowls in his nine seasons.
Others who reached the Pro Bowl from No. 28: Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis, who was drafted in 2006; Bills center Eric Wood, drafted in 2009; and Saints running back Mark Ingram, taken in 2011.
The Chiefs have had the No. 28 selection one other time in their history, selecting safety Jerome Woods in 1996. Woods had a productive career, appearing in 128 games over nine seasons, all with the Chiefs. He made a Pro Bowl appearance in 2003, the year after he missed a season because of a broken leg.
Draft speculation has the Chiefs taking a defensive player with their first-round selection Thursday. That has been the case for two of the three first-round selections under general manager John Dorsey and five of the Chiefs’ previous seven.
“When you get down to the mid-20s, all the way back to 31, 32, it’s hard to actually predict who’s going to be there,” Dorsey said. “The best player — that’s what we want.”
Last year’s draft produced two full-time starters among the nine selections for the Chiefs: first-round cornerback Marcus Peters and center Mitch Morse, taken in the second round. Their third-round selection, wide receiver Chris Conley, started five games.
Among the best ever taken at No. 28? In 1983, when the NFL had 28 teams, Washington selected a small-school defensive back, Darrell Green, with the final pick of the first round. He went on to a 20-year Hall of Fame career and was selected one spot behind quarterback Dan Marino, taken by the Dolphins at No. 27.
Also taken at No. 28 was linebacker Derrick Brooks, by the Buccaneers in 1995. Brooks didn’t miss a game in his 14-year NFL career and was chosen NFL defensive player of the year in 2002, the team’s Super Bowl winning season.
NFL draft picks at No. 28 since 2006
Year, Player, Pos., College, NFL team, Games played/started as a rookie
2015, Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke, Lions (from Broncos), 16/14
2014, Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State, Panthers, 16/15
2013, Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina, Broncos, 13/4
2012, Nick Perry, LB, Southern California, Packers, 6/5
2011, Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama, Saints, 10/4
2010, Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State, Dolphins, 1/1
2009, Eric Wood, C, Louisville, Bills, 10/10
2008, Lawrence Jackson, DE, Southern California, Seahawks (from Cowboys), 16/14
2007, Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan, 49ers, 16/16
2006, Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA, Jaguars, 15/3