Chiefs-Browns scouting report

When the Chiefs run

EDGE >> CHIEFS

Big edge here for the Chiefs, who have established an identity as a running team and will be facing a team that struggles mightily against the run. Inside linebacker Karlos Dansby (6-3, 251) leads the Browns’ 3-4 defense in tackles, but he — like fellow inside linebackers Chris Kirksey and Craig Robertson — have fared better in coverage this year. Defensive end Randy Starks (6-4, 305) and first-round rookie Danny Shelton (6-2, 339) are fairly stout — Shelton, in particular, was impressive last week against the Seahawks — but the Browns’ run defense has still surrendered the fifth-most runs over 20 yards (12) third-most runs over 40 yards (four) in the league. They’re also surrendering 4.6 yards per carry, which is tied for the fourth-worst mark in the league. The new ground-and-pound Chiefs need to take it to them in this area.

When the Chiefs pass

EDGE >> CHIEFS

The Browns will be without star cornerback Joe Haden, who has been placed on injured reserve because of concussions. Cleveland’s best corner has been veteran Tramon Willams (6-0, 192), who has a team-high 10 deflections, but their other corners are young and have yielded some big plays. Safety Tashaun Gipson (5-11, 205) was a Pro Bowler last year, but veteran Donte Whitner (5-10, 208) is probably having a better year. Dansby, a linebacker, actually leads the Browns in interceptions with three. Defensive end Desmond Bryant (6-6, 310) leads the team in sacks with six, but the Browns — who rank 23rd in the league in sacks with 28 — largely struggle to consistently rush the passer. Opposing quarterbacks have ripped them up to the tune of a 102.1 passer rating, which is the third-worst mark in the league, and Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith happens to be playing some of his best football right now.

When the Browns run

EDGE >> CHIEFS

The Browns have a couple of intriguing young backs in Isaiah Crowell (5-11, 225) and Duke Johnson (5-9, 210), both of whom are averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Crowell is a little bigger and is the primary back, but Johnson, a rookie, possesses good vision, quickness and a natural running style. He is also a very effective receiver out of the backfield — he’s third on the team in receptions with 54 and fourth in receiving yards (485). Veteran center Alex Mack (6-4, 311) is the strength of an interior offensive line that has been weakened by injuries to starters Joel Bitonio and John Greco. Their replacements, rookie Cameron Erving (6-5, 313) and Austin Pasztor (6-7, 308), have struggled, so the Chiefs’ strong and productive group of interior d-linemen need to take advantage of that matchup

When the Browns pass

EDGE >> BROWNS

Quarterback Johnny Manziel (6-0, 210), a first-round pick a year ago, is playing for his job in Cleveland. He operates plenty of the shotgun and is very elusive. He also has a strong arm, and all that makes him dangerous. But he’s still adjusting to the speed of the league, and has a penchant for throwing off his back foot and/or throwing across his body, which plays into the hands of an opportunistic Chiefs defense that ranks second in the league in interceptions with 20. But if Manziel can protect the ball, complete some early passes and get some confidence, the Browns can pose some problems for a pass defense that ranks 17th in the league and will again be without star outside linebacker Justin Houston. Manziel certainly has some intriguing targets to throw to in tight end Gary Barnidge (6-6, 250), who just signed an extension, and speedy receiver Travis Benjamin (5-10, 175), who is having an outstanding contract year (61 catches, 893 yards, five touchdowns) and can cause problems with his superb quickness. Few defenders can stay with him, so the Chiefs will need to know where he is at all times. Former Chief Dwayne Bowe (6-2, 222) is listed third on the depth chart and has struggled to make an impact. Manziel is also protected up front by Joe Thomas (6-6, 312), who is everything you want in a left tackle. He is big, consistent (he never has missed a start) and a master in pass protection. If Tamba Hali plays, that matchup will be fun to watch. Thomas is flanked by emerging right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (6-5, 320), who is having an outstanding contract year. He uses his technique and smarts to win in pass protection.

Special teams

EDGE >> CHIEFS

Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos is second in the league in field goals made with 29, though his conversion percentage (81) ranks seven points behind Cleveland’s Travis Coons (88). Santos also has a slightly better touchback percentage (48.8 to 40.3). Chiefs punter Dustin Colquitt ranks third in the league in punts inside the 20 with 32, while Cleveland’s Andy Lee ranks 14th. Cleveland does a better job covering kicks, statistically, but the Chiefs do a better job covering punts — Cleveland has yielded a touchdown. The Browns have better kick and punt return averages, in addition to a punt return touchdown. So it’s pretty close, but the Chiefs’ kicking and punting give them an edge, especially at home, where they’re used to the Arrowhead Stadium wind patterns.

Coaching

EDGE >> CHIEFS

After going 10-20 in his two seasons as head coach, the Browns’ Mike Pettine is on the hot seat. His players have recently spoken out in support of him — all said they valued continuity. Pettine is a defensive-minded coach with a good history on that side of the ball, as he contributed to the Jets’ No. 1 defense in 2009. Second-year defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil’s group has struggled to stop the run for the second straight season. First-year offensive coordinator John DeFilippo unit ranks 25th in the league in total offense.

X-factor

EDGE >> BROWNS

The Browns have absolutely nothing to lose, so they should be able to play loose. As for the Chiefs, they’ll be playing a December home game against a bad team a few days after Christmas, so it will be interesting to see how energized the crowd is. The Chiefs have shown impressive mental toughness this season, but this one of those games where the threat of laying an egg is real.

Bottom line: Chiefs 27-13

Manziel showed a knack for making some magic during his college days, and he has shown improvement this year, which makes him a potential danger. But if the Chiefs control the line of scrimmage and play with their usual intensity, they should cash in on a few mistakes and pull this one out.

This story was originally published December 26, 2015 at 12:19 PM.