Chiefs-Cowboys odds & prediction: A Thanksgiving homecoming for Patrick Mahomes
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs visit Cowboys on Thanksgiving; Mahomes makes first NFL start at AT&T.
- Both teams sit near conference middles with six games left and playoff urgency.
- Offenses rely on passing stars while defenses adjust to recent personnel moves.
Coming off their dramatic 23-20 Week 12 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) quickly turn their attention to a Week 13 Thanksgiving matchup on the road against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys improved to 5-5-1 in Week 12 after overcoming a 21-0 deficit to the Philadelphia Eagles, ripping off a 24-0 run to complete their own comeback.
How to watch Chiefs at Cowboys
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Central
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs -3.5
Behind the KC-DAL matchup
Given the brands, stakes and holiday showcase, many have forecasted this Thanksgiving matchup between the Chiefs and Cowboys to be the most watched regular-season NFL game of all time.
And the beauty of it is that for both teams, it carries real consequence.
Thanks to slow starts, both Kansas City and Dallas currently sit at 10th place in their respective conferences. At this stage, with six games to play, neither team can afford a loss, giving this AFC-NFC meeting the urgency of a postseason contest.
Following the Chiefs’ comeback win over the Colts, Patrick Mahomes described it as “exactly what we needed,” an acknowledgement that Kansas City had to finally prove it could win a close game after losing five straight one-score decisions.
The Chiefs’ approach against the Colts demonstrated a better emphasis on run-pass balance, with Kareem Hunt rushing 30 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes added 352 yards through the air, with Rashee Rice leading all receivers with eight catches for 141 yards.
Starting running back Isiah Pacheco, who practiced last week, could return Thursday after missing the last three games with a knee strain. Right guard Trey Smith left Sunday’s game early with an ankle sprain, so Mike Caliendo is likely to draw the start.
Caliendo and the Chiefs’ interior will have to contend with newly acquired All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. The Cowboys ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring defense this season (28.5 points per game), but have allowed just 18.5 per game in the two games since Williams arrived.
Offensively, Dallas leads the NFL in passing yards (266.8 per game), led by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and breakout wideout George Pickens. Brought in from Pittsburgh, Pickens has amassed 1,054 receiving yards through 11 games, which is second in the NFL behind Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Formerly of the division rival Broncos, Javonte Williams is enjoying a bounce-back season in Dallas, posting 896 yards and eight touchdowns. Kansas City should carry confidence against Williams after limiting Jonathan Taylor to just 58 rushing yards in Week 12.
Similar to the Chiefs with Smith, Cowboys left tackle Tyler Guyton left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, and it is possible he misses Thursday’s game. If that’s the case, 2024 seventh-rounder Nate Thomas, who replaced Guyton against the Eagles, would be expected to make the second start of his career.
That potential weakness may provide opportunities for Kansas City’s front — and particularly George Karlaftis, who leads Kansas City in both sacks (five) and pressures (52). Kansas City ranks fourth in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) and forced four straight three-and-outs to close the door on last week’s win.
Thursday’s game at AT&T Stadium marks a meaningful homecoming for Mahomes, who played high school football in Whitehouse, Texas, and college football at Texas Tech. Mahomes previously played at AT&T Stadium in college and as a backup behind Alex Smith in 2017, but this will be his first NFL start in the building.
Chiefs-Cowboys game prediction
Mahomes’ words — “exactly what we needed” — stuck with me after Sunday’s win over the Colts. It was the kind of win that reminded the Chiefs who they really are.
The Cowboys are hot and the stadium will be buzzing, but I am not betting against Mahomes in his home state on Thanksgiving, with the national spotlight shined upon him.
Winner: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 24 | Pick to cover: Cowboys
This story was originally published November 25, 2025 at 7:00 AM.
