Chiefs-Commanders betting line & prediction: Another lopsided matchup at Arrowhead
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs host Commanders at Arrowhead; betting line Chiefs -12.5, expect rout
- Washington turns to Marcus Mariota after Jayden Daniels sustains hamstring injury
- Mahomes-led Chiefs hit stride while Washington battles injuries and weak pass defense
After a rare early-afternoon break, the Kansas City Chiefs return to prime time Monday night as they welcome the Washington Commanders to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs improved to 4-3 with their dominant 31-0 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Commanders fell to 3-3 when the Chicago Bears kicked a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
How to watch Commanders at Chiefs
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN/ABC (Channel 9 in Kansas City)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs -12.5.
Behind the WAS-KC matchup
Before the season began, this Commanders-Chiefs “Monday Night Football” matchup projected to be one of the season’s best, considering the anticipated duel between offensive rookie of the year Jayden Daniels and two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes.
But that won’t happen.
Last week, Daniels suffered a hamstring strain and has already been ruled out, meaning the Commanders will turn to veteran backup Marcus Mariota, who last started at Arrowhead against the Chiefs in the 2017 Wild Card Round. Mariota infamously threw a touchdown to himself in a 22-21 victory that would be the final game of Alex Smith’s Chiefs career.
The Tennessee Titans selected Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner, with the second overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, but he was benched in favor of Ryan Tannehill during the 2019 season.
Mariota’s last chance as a regular starter came in 2022 with the Atlanta Falcons, but his tenure ended in similar fashion. He spent 2023 as the Philadelphia Eagles’ backup before landing in Washington ahead of the 2024 season.
With Daniels sidelined earlier this season, Mariota went 1-1 in two starts, going 31-of-48 for 363 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
Calling the quarterback matchup lopsided is probably an understatement. Mahomes is back to playing at an MVP level, supported by solid protection and a healthy arsenal of pass-catchers.
In Rashee Rice’s return to the lineup on limited snaps last week, Mahomes still targeted him 10 times, connecting for seven catches, 42 yards and two touchdowns.
As the Chiefs’ offense scored 31 points against the Raiders, their defense held Las Vegas scoreless. While Kansas City won’t have rookie defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott, who was lost to the season due to a knee injury, Daniels isn’t the only offensive player banged up for Washington.
Receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel both missed last week’s game due to injury. Both are expected to practice this week, though it remains to be seen if they’ll play. Washington placed top pass rusher Dorance Armstrong on the Reserve/Injured list on Tuesday.
With Armstrong out of the mix, 36-year-old Von Miller becomes the point of focus for the Chiefs’ offensive line, a unit that could be without two starters. Rookie Josh Simmons has missed Kansas City’s last two games due to a personal matter, and Trey Smith left last week’s game midway due to a back issue. If Simmons and Smith are out, Jaylon Moore and Mike Caliendo are the expected starters.
Commanders-Chiefs game prediction
For the second straight week, everything about the matchup seems to favor the Chiefs.
Washington is visiting Kansas City with a backup quarterback, a banged-up receiving corps and the No. 25 pass defense in terms of yards allowed (238).
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are nearly fully healthy and clicking on all cylinders. Once again, I like the home team.
Winner: Chiefs 33, Commanders 13
Pick to cover: Chiefs
This story was originally published October 23, 2025 at 7:00 AM.
