Chiefs-Ravens betting line & prediction: Somebody’s going to be 1-3
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs enter as underdogs at Arrowhead for second time in 2025 season.
- Ravens lead NFL in scoring but rank 31st in points surrendered per game.
- Mahomes holds 4-1 record vs. Jackson; Chiefs predicted to edge Ravens 30-27.
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4 in a battle between two Super Bowl hopefuls with 1-2 records.
Here’s everything you need to know before kickoff — and a game prediction.
How to watch Ravens at Chiefs
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City)
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Ravens -2.5
Behind the KC-BAL matchup
A sign of the times or a grand overreaction?
Upon returning from a loss to Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, the Chiefs were home underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles — marking only the second time ever (and first time since 2022) that Kansas City was a home underdog with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
Two weeks later, the Chiefs find themselves underdogs at Arrowhead again against the Ravens.
Entering 2025, both Kansas City and Baltimore were viewed as AFC contenders, but a trying early slate has them both at 1-2.
The Chiefs began their 2025 campaign with losses to the Chargers and Eagles marred by uncharacteristic mistakes from key players that cost them a chance at a late victory. Two second-half touchdowns and a wire-to-wire stout defensive outing against the Giants on Sunday night led to their first win.
The Ravens squandered a 15-point fourth-quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 to drop their first game, with a Derrick Henry fumble swinging momentum. Another costly fumble by Henry factored in to their Week 3 loss this past Monday night against Detroit.
The Ravens’ two losses sandwiched a dominant performance against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. For what it’s worth, Henry fumbled in that game, too, but the Ravens recovered.
Entering Sunday, Baltimore’s offensive and defensive units are moving in opposite directions. The Ravens’ offense tops the league in points per game (37.0), but their defense is near the bottom, coming in at No. 31 in points surrendered (32.3).
The idea of a shootout probably doesn’t sound appetizing for the Chiefs, who have yet to score more than 22 points this season and haven’t since last year’s AFC Championship Game. Kansas City’s defense has been steady the past two weeks, but the task grows taller against two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.
Jackson has the ability to gash an opponent with his legs, and early on this year, he’s been just as impressive with his arm: His 72% completion percentage is good for fourth in the league; Mahomes is 30th at 59% — and he currently leads the Chiefs with 125 rushing yards.
Regardless of circumstance, Mahomes has historically gotten the better of Jackson head to head, winning four of five matchups that might have been perfect if not for an untimely fumble by Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2021.
Listed a full participant on Wednesday, Xavier Worthy seems poised to return to the lineup for the first time since exiting with a shoulder injury on the third play of the season. His presence alongside surprise touchdown leader Tyquan Thornton could provide a spark.
The outlook for defensive end Mike Danna (hip) and cornerback Kristian Fulton (ankle) is cloudier after they missed the last game.
The Ravens are expected to be without both defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and linebacker Kyle Van Noy. Tight end Isaiah Likely, who had foot surgery in the offseason, could make his season debut after logging a limited practice on Wednesday.
Remember, it was Likely’s foot — or toe, to be more specific — that made all the difference in last year’s matchup.
Game prediction
Kansas City’s defense is clicking, and Steve Spanguolo is known for scheming against dynamic offenses.
Worthy’s return could prove incremental, but we know that Mahomes has established a deep threat he trusts in Thornton.
For the first time all season, the Chiefs’ offense starts fast, and Spagnuolo’s unit contains Jackson just enough for the narrow win and home upset.
Winner: Chiefs 30, Ravens 27
Pick to cover: Chiefs
This story was originally published September 25, 2025 at 6:30 AM.
