Chiefs-Steelers prediction: Here’s the factor that swayed my KC-Pittsburgh pick
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day.
Here are this week’s game details:
Kickoff: Noon Central on Wednesday
Where: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh
TV: Netflix or Channel 5 in Kansas City
Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Betting line: Chiefs by 3.
Chiefs-Steelers game prediction
I’m not exactly breaking news here, but this is a tough one to predict given the circumstances.
These teams haven’t gotten enough rest between games after the NFL enacted an essential 3 1/2-day turnaround following a short week before that. Will Chiefs star defensive lineman Chris Jones (calf) play? How about right tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee)?
Hard to tell at this point. One would at least have to consider Jones questionable, since he didn’t go through KC’s only practice Monday. At the same time, Taylor is presumably likelier to play, given he got some limited work in the team’s no-helmets walk-through.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh seems like it’ll get one of its best players back. Receiver George Pickens appears ready to go following a hamstring injury, and that figures to be a massive boost for a Steelers offense that has been boom-or-bust behind quarterback Russell Wilson.
The Steelers have been the anti-Chiefs on offense in 2024; instead of grinding things out, they’ve thrived by bombing away. Deep throws are Wilson’s specialty, and Pickens has unquestionably been his top target, pulling down twelve 25-plus-yard passes this season (which, by the way, is just two fewer than all of KC’s receivers combined).
That’s important, because Pittsburgh’s rush offense has only been average at best. KC’s defense has thrived at stuffing the run, meaning the Steelers’ best bet for offensive success will be chucking it long while trying to take advantage of the Chiefs’ current depth problems on the back end.
Pittsburgh actually is better on defense than offense, but how that facet will perform Wednesday remains an unknown as well. All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt hurried back from an ankle injury to play last week but wasn’t his usual productive self in a loss against the Baltimore Ravens. Could the Chiefs be getting a break by playing Watt while he’s still hampered this week? That certainly could play out to be true.
There are reasons not to like KC’s circumstances either, though. The Chiefs are likely to shift left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle for a third straight week — a move that has stabilized pass protection but sapped all the production out of a previously successful run game. New left guard Mike Caliendo also struggled last week against the Texans, and one has to wonder if the third-year pro will be able to rebuild confidence quickly while going against a stout Steelers defensive line.
Then there’s quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who played the part of Superman for the Chiefs against the Texans while playing one of his best games last week with a mild high ankle sprain. Can he repeat that type of effort without much rest? And can KC’s offense continue to succeed while limiting the playbook to almost all quick passes?
The weather should be decent for both offenses. Highs are expected in the upper 30s without much wind, meaning big passing days should be possible for teams likely to shy away from their run games.
In a close matchup, I’ll give a slight nod to the Chiefs thanks to one tie-breaking reason: Hollywood Brown. The Chiefs’ offense looked completely different with him out there against the Texans, as he and rookie wideout Xavier Worthy were able to feed off each other while giving KC’s offense the speed it envisioned having in training camp.
Though most players will likely be groggy Wednesday, Brown is ramping up and should be completely fresh. I could see him being a difference-maker in this one, separating from coverage while giving Mahomes a reliable (and open) target while operating at a different speed than those around him.
Even if KC’s defense allows some big plays, I expect the Chiefs’ offense to be slightly better.
Give me the Chiefs for the win and narrow cover in a high-scoring affair.
Chiefs 30, Steelers 24
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Texans 20, Chiefs 14 (Actual: Chiefs 27-19) ❌
2024 record vs. spread: 6-8-1
Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 31-24-1 (56%)
