Two games left, here’s where Kansas City Chiefs sit relative to NFL playoff scenarios
Christmas was supposed to be the Day of The Clinch.
The Chiefs were a double-digit favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium was filled. The Chiefs were coming off a victory.
Instead, the Las Vegas Raiders walked away with a 20-14 triumph, throwing cold water on the festivities and altering the Chiefs’ division-winning scenarios.
Their percentage chances of winning the division remain solidly in the Chiefs’ favor. But Monday’s loss was a blow, dropping the Chiefs to 9-6 overall and 4-4 at home. Those loss totals, in both categories, are their most in a season since Patrick Mahomes became the team’s starting quarterback in 2018.
“We are focused on winning the AFC West,” said defensive tackle Chris Jones, who recorded a sack. “Everything we want is still ahead of us.”
To capture an eighth straight AFC West title, the Chiefs, 9-6, have to win one of their final two games. They play the Cincinnati Bengals at home next Sunday, then wrap up the regular season at the Los Angeles Chargers the following week.
Behind the Chiefs in the standing are the Raiders and Denver Broncos, both at 7-8. For one of those teams to finish ahead of the Chiefs, it would have to win its final two games and hope the Chiefs drop both.
The Broncos and Raiders play in Las Vegas in Week 18, so it’s impossible for Denver and Las Vegas to both go 2-0. Denver meets the L.A. Chargers at home and the Raiders visit Indianapolis in Week 17; a loss in any of those games eliminates that team from the division race.
But if the Chiefs go 0-2 and either the Broncos or Raiders go 2-0, the AFC West will have two teams at 9-8. The tie-breaker is division record, and the Chiefs would be 3-3. Either the Broncos or Raiders would be 4-2. The Chiefs’ only chance to make the playoffs at that point would be as a wild-card team.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Chiefs have a 98% chance of making the playoffs in some fashion.
As for seeding, the Chiefs trail the Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 entering Monday’s game at the San Francisco 49ers, and the Miami Dolphins. Miami improved to 11-4 after defeating the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
The Chiefs would be the No. 3 seed if the playoffs started today and would open with a home game in the wild-card round.