Chiefs-Packers prediction: Is Kansas City facing a Green Bay team (& QB) on the rise?
The Details
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: NBC (Channel 41 in Kansas City)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chiefs by 6.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs are facing the Green Bay Packers at an interesting time.
Almost everywhere you turn when researching Green Bay, you’re led to one word: “average.” Green Bay’s ranking in the all-encompassing DVOA measure is middle-of-the-road in nearly every category you look up:
- Overall, 19th DVOA rank;
- Offense, 16th;
- Defense, 18th.
And so on and so on. This, if nothing else, provides us a good baseline for what to think about the Packers, who perhaps not surprisingly — are 5-6 this season.
That’s where the timing comes in, though. Should we be considering the Packers a team on the rise?
They certainly played one of their best games of the season in last week’s road victory over the Detroit Lions. And much of the team’s optimism has to center around the recent elevated play of quarterback Jordan Love, whose Pro Football Focus grade in four November games ranked seventh in the NFL (and also higher than that of the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes).
It’s worth noting that KC should actually face an actual road-game-type setting here. Though Chiefs fans took over Las Vegas for the team’s away game last week (and should do the same in next month’s game in LA against the Chargers), that shouldn’t be the reality here, where Green Bay’s proud home fans are unlikely to sell off too many seats to outsiders.
Though the six-point spread seems about right to me, I see a few reasons to be concerned on the Packers’ side:
1. The Love factor. I often preach in this spot not to overreact to the previous week’s result, and even though Love has been great in the last month, the larger sample would tell us he’s more a top-20 QB than a top-10 one.
2. The blitz factor. We know Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is great at bringing creative pressures that take advantage of opponents double-teaming Chris Jones, and advanced stats indicate the Packers (and Love) have had problems dealing with blitzes this year.
3. The luck factor. The Packers’ results thus far appear to be propped up a bit by things out of their control. They’ve been the “luckiest” team in the league when considering points added on elements such as opponent dropped passes and missed kicks, meaning they might naturally be a point or two worse per game than their surface-level stats suggest.
Kansas City clearly has the better special teams, and Green Bay also has struggled to run the football for most of the year — a part of the game that the Chiefs had issues stopping in each of their three losses.
Early weather forecasts indicate the snow will hold off; if that happens, the passing games should be mostly unaffected without much wind.
Ultimately, I like the Chiefs for both the win and slight cover. I trust their season-long track record over the Packers, while also thinking Spagnuolo’s defense will make things challenging on a Green Bay passing game that will have to produce to keep things competitive.
Chiefs 24, Packers 13
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 10 (Actual: Chiefs 31-17) ✔️
2023 record vs. spread: 8-3
Last two seasons record vs. spread: 20-11
