Chiefs-Eagles prediction: Can KC take advantage of Philadelphia’s biggest deficiency?
The Details
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central on Monday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: ESPN
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The NFL can’t ask for much more for a primetime broadcast, right?
Chiefs-Eagles on Monday Night Football is not only a Super Bowl rematch, but also will feature the Kelce brothers and celebrities in the stands and the two best teams — by win percentage at least — in each respective conference.
Philadelphia is strong offensively. The Eagles have better run-pass balance than the Chiefs, and Jalen Hurts continues to come into his own as a quarterback while remaining dangerous as a dual threat.
The offensive line — led by center Jason Kelce — is also formidable. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has the Eagles rated eighth in pass blocking and second in run blocking, making this one of the toughest tests for the Chiefs’ front line all season.
Defensively, the Eagles are excellent up front but have a glaring weakness on the back end. The team is tied for 22nd in PFF coverage grade, with a deeper dive indicating Philly’s back-of-the-rotation corners are especially susceptible to big plays.
That’d typically be a recipe for disaster against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. But will it be as much in this one? KC is facing some of its own identity issues on offense, with Mahomes and his secondary targets (behind Travis Kelce) not connecting as well as they’d hoped at this point in the season.
The Eagles also have an advantage everyone knows about: short-yardage execution. That could play a significant factor in a game where both teams are likely to feature methodical drives offensively.
It’s worth mentioning that while the Chiefs defense has continually played well this season, this is a trickier matchup than most — especially without injured linebacker Nick Bolton. The Eagles had to watch the KC-Denver tape from a few weeks ago thinking they could replicate some of that type of rushing success. And though KC’s defense doesn’t feature many shortcomings, it has been below average against the run, even if that’s only a tiny blemish on an otherwise sparkling résumé.
I see the Chiefs finding more success through the air after the bye week, but also figure the Eagles will be solid on that end. And in a contest that could be decided by a slim margin, it’s not unreasonable to like Philly’s chances better of extending drives on third and fourth downs.
Though I haven’t picked against the Chiefs straight up this season, the Eagles are good enough to win this one, even if the Chiefs play decently well.
In the end, give me Philadelphia for both the outright win and cover, as I see short-yardage and red-zone efficiency tipping this one the Eagles’ way.
Eagles 28, Chiefs 24
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Philadelphia
Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 24 (Actual: Chiefs 21-14) ✔️
2023 record vs. spread: 6-3
Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 18-11
