Chiefs-Bears prediction: How much should we make of Chicago’s disastrous week?
The Details
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: FOX
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 12 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
For a few days, it’s been a Kansas City opponent — and not the Chiefs themselves — that’s been stealing the national headlines.
The Chicago Bears, following an 0-2 start, have had a week to forget. Their defensive coordinator resigned. Their left tackle was placed on injured reserve. And their young quarterback Justin Fields said he’s been overthinking while playing.
That’s a lot for any team to go through, much less one that came into the season with its coach, Matt Eberflus, already teetering on the hot seat.
Here’s the interesting thing, though: With all that happening since the start of the week, guess which way the Vegas line has moved?
It’s actually ticked toward the Bears, shifting from the Chiefs being a 13-point favorite Monday to a 12 1/2-point expected winner now.
All this off-the-field chatter, then, only carries so much weight. And that’s important to keep that in mind when looking at this matchup.
The Bears remain an NFL team, meaning the talent disparity between them and the Chiefs isn’t the same gulf as, say, Alabama facing Akron in college football.
Chicago still has had some recent troubling signs. Fields, through two games, has not been used in designed run plays. It’s a mistake, and one that could be easily fixed if the team decides to pick different calls in its playbook.
Two prominent national analysts also have called the team out for horrific offensive schemes. But won’t the Bears be paying attention? Add Fields’ admissions of overthinking to the equation, and it’d make a lot of sense for Chicago to simplify things for a game to see if that leads to more success.
The Chiefs, last year at least, didn’t play great as huge favorites. KC was 2-3 against the spread when Vegas liked them by 10-plus, going 5-0 straight up but with an average margin of victory of 8.4 points.
Chicago’s defense isn’t great. The Bears have struggled especially with pass defense, posting one sack in two games while showing themselves to be susceptible in coverage.
Kansas City could have a nice day offensively. Things haven’t clicked well through two games, but quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his receivers should find more holes in the specific defense they’re facing this week.
Defensively, I could see some regression from a Chiefs defense that has been excellent so far. Red-zone effectiveness — one of the team’s biggest bright spots thus far — can be fluky game to game, and Fields’ presence as a running quarterback is a much different conceptual challenge than the pass-oriented Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence provided the previous two weeks.
It wouldn’t take many big offensive plays — or strategic changes — for the Bears offense to do enough to keep this game closer than expected.
Give me KC for the win but Chicago for the cover, as I think the Bears’ negative noise from the week will have less of an impact than most expect.
Chiefs 28, Bears 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Chicago
Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24 (Actual: Chiefs 17-9) ✔️
2023 record vs. spread: 1-1
Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 13-9
