Chiefs beat Jaguars once this season. Here’s how they can again (with higher stakes)
The Chiefs’ march to Super Bowl LVII officially begins Saturday in the AFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, against the Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The two organizations have met 14 times, including a Week 10 Chiefs victory (27-17) in Kansas City. The Chiefs hold an 8-6 edge in the teams’ all-time series.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid and Jaguars coach Doug Pederson know each other well, and Reid is impressed with the job Pederson has done in Jacksonville.
“Tremendous coaching job, phenomenal coaching job,” Reid said. “I’d imagine he’s up for the Coach of the Year by his performance and how he’s resurrected that program there. That’s not an easy thing to do, and he’s done it as well or better than anybody.”
In Pederson’s first season as head coach, the Jaguars went from last place in 2021 to winning the AFC South this season. The Jaguars also closed out the regular season with five straight wins, clinching the division title in their final regular-season game.
Simply put, these aren’t the same Jaguars the Chiefs met at the midpoint of the season.
“I think the only difference is they might just have a little bit more confidence because they’re winning football games right now, but they’re a talented team,” Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. “I knew that the first time we played them, you can see the talent that they had.
“They were flying around to the football. They made a few mistakes here and there, and that’s why we kind of got the win the first time. But we understand how good this football team is and how much of a challenge it is going to be for us to go out there and try to find a way to get a win.”
With a potential championship run on the line, here are the keys to the game for the Chiefs:
FOOT ON PEDAL
The Jaguars have shown a knack for comeback wins over the past month.
In Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys, they faced a 17-point deficit midway through the third quarter before roaring back to win 40-34. In Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans, with the AFC South on the line, the Jaguars overcame a six-point deficit in the third quarter to win 20-16.
But Jacksonville saved its best for the opening round of the playoffs. Down 27-0 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Jaguars outscored the Chargers 31-3 the rest of the way to complete a 31-30 victory.
Even more impressive was how Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence shook off a four-interception performance to lead the comeback.
“He battled through,” Mahomes said of Lawrence. “That’s a true test of a competitor, that whenever stuff’s not going your way, to still pull your team to find a way to win. And he’s done it at every level — high school, college and now in the NFL.”
With Lawrence under center, the Jaguars are a confident team and have proven they can battle back if an opponent allows them to do so.
The Chiefs can’t let up if they get a lead.
CORRAL NO. 1
Jaguars running back Travis Etienne is hot again, topping 100 yards rushing in three of the Jags’ final five regular-season games. He also rushed for 109 yards in the opening round of the postseason against the Chargers.
Etienne finished the regular season with 1,125 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 220 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. He added 35 catches for 316 yards.
The Jaguars’ running game enters the weekend ranked a respectable 14th in the league, averaging 124.5 yards per game.
The Chiefs, however, faced a hot Etienne in Week 10. He came into that matchup on a roll, having rushed for 379 yards and four touchdowns in Weeks 7-9.
But Kansas City’s rushing defense rose to the occasion and made him a non-factor that day, limiting him to 45 yards on 11 carries.
A repeat performance must be on the Chiefs’ defensive menu.
“Just rely on our front four guys to do the work for us,” Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton said. “We’ve just got to tackle out in space. We all know he’s an explosive running back. ... It’s going to take all 11 of us again this week.”
Led by Bolton, the Chiefs are well-equipped to deal with an opponent’s ground game after finishing the regular season ranked eighth against the run (107.2 yards allowed per game).
LOCK DOWN KIRK
The Chiefs must pay attention to Jacksonville’s top receiving threat: Christian Kirk.
He finished the regular season with 84 catches for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns on 133 targets, all team bests. The 5-foot-11, 200-pound Kirk hurt the Chiefs in Week 10 with nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
Lawrence has other receiving weapons at his disposal, too, such as Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram. Each scored a touchdown in the Jaguars’ win over the Chargers last weekend.
But the Chiefs’ defensive game plan should involve containing Kirk first. They can’t allow him to run free in the secondary or get into the end zone again.
GO AFTER JAGS’ PASS DEFENSE
Mahomes helped the Chiefs’ offense rank first in the league in multiple statistical categories, including total yards (413.6 yards per game), points per game (29.2), passing yards (297.8/game) and yards per play (6.4).
The Chiefs’ All-Pro quarterback led the league in passing (5,240 yards), touchdown passes (41) and completions of 20-plus yards (73).
Mahomes, who passed for 331 yards and four touchdowns with an interception against the Jaguars in Week 10, has an equally exploitable matchup at hand in the AFC Divisional Round.
While it’s true that the Jaguars are on a hot streak, their pass defense is beatable. They had just 25 sacks during the regular season and their coverage allowed 238.5 passing yards per game (28th in the league).
The Chiefs’ offensive line needs a performance similar to the one it produced in Week 10 to give Mahomes time in the pocket to take advantage of this matchup.
