Chiefs-Raiders prediction: Why it’s worth rethinking how KC-Vegas game could turn out
The Details
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Central on Saturday
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: ESPN
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
So I think I’ve officially changed my mind about this pick.
All initial signs would probably point to Las Vegas keeping this close. New quarterback Jarrett Stidham performed better than expectations in last week’s 37-34 overtime loss to San Francisco. The Chiefs also haven’t exactly been overpowering in their AFC West victories this season, winning by three, one, three, six and three in their five contests against division foes.
KC also has some real game pressure that Las Vegas doesn’t. The Chiefs remain in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed while needing a victory, while the Raiders can look to play spoiler while finishing their underwhelming campaign.
The more I look into this matchup, though, the more I can’t help but think KC might run away with it.
Stidham was excellent in his first game ... but can he do it again? He deserves credit for last week’s 365-yard effort, but it still is just one showing and we shouldn’t assume it to be his new level of performance just yet.
Tight end Darren Waller is back for the Raiders, which helps, but running back Josh Jacobs missed some early-week practices, which if nothing else should leave his gameday status in doubt.
Receiver Davante Adams — he was listed with an illness earlier in the week — should challenge KC’s corners, but the bottom line is this Las Vegas team shouldn’t be as dangerous without Derek Carr firing the passes.
And defensively ... Las Vegas is a mess. Defensive end Maxx Crosby remains a disruptive force, while cornerback Tyler Hall has stacked some strong performances lately.
There’s not much to like outside that. Las Vegas ranks 31st in defense according to Football Outsiders’ advanced numbers, and that includes a No. 32 ranking in pass defense.
It seems like a bad formula for hanging in the game against the Chiefs. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was off last week — it sure looked like his right knee was bothering him, even if he didn’t want to make excuses postgame — but odds are if healthy again, he won’t miss wide-open throws two weeks in a row.
KC’s defense, meanwhile, appears to be on an uptick in recent games, while also more equipped to take on Adams thanks to the return of rookie Trent McDuffie (who wasn’t available against Las Vegas last time in KC’s 30-29 win).
The Chiefs have had a few dominating statistical efforts in the past few weeks that have remained close on the scoreboard only because of turnovers and a lack of big-play execution.
Those final two categories have a way of evening out over time. Look for KC to move the ball at will through the air while also matching up better with Las Vegas’ pass-game options than it did in Week 5.
Give me the Chiefs for a blowout win and cover.
Chiefs 38, Raiders 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Broncos 13 (Actual: Chiefs 27-24) ❌
This year’s record vs. spread: 8-8
This story was originally published January 5, 2023 at 7:00 AM.
