Chiefs-Seahawks prediction: KC should be most concerned about this Seattle strength
The Details
Kickoff: Noon Central on Saturday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: FOX (Ch. 4) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 10.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
While NFL over-under totals are down across the NFL because of winter weather conditions, that’s not really the case with this Kansas City-Seattle matchup.
Sports books expect 49 combined points between the two teams — even in frigid weather — because both teams’ offenses far outpace their defenses.
For the 7-7 Seahawks, the passing game has kept their season afloat. Quarterback Geno Smith has been a revelation in his first year replacing Russell Wilson, as he’s accurately read defenses while delivering mostly on-target passes.
Seattle’s greatest strength besides Smith on that end rests in its skill-position players, where DK Metcalf remains a physical freak as a receiver and Kenneth Walker III has been reliable as a rookie running back with no fumbles in 173 touches.
The defense, though, has been an issue. Seattle lost former All-Pro safety Jamal Adams to an injury early in the season, and that hasn’t helped a unit that currently ranks near the bottom in pass rush and coverage grades at Pro Football Focus.
Kansas City shares the same strengths and weaknesses as Seattle, though in a better position on both sides.
After a historic completion-percentage performance last week against Houston, Patrick Mahomes has become the betting favorite again to win league MVP honors, and rightfully so. As long as the winds remain in the predicted 9-20 mph range Saturday, KC should have success throwing against this Seattle secondary.
Defensively, the Chiefs played better than the score indicated against the Houston Texans in an overtime game last week but still committed too many coverage penalties. KC also hasn’t always been best against true No. 1 WRs this season — Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs, Las Vegas’ Davante Adams and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase all had big games against the Chiefs — so the team will have to be sound with its back-end communication as it likely looks to double-team Metcalf on most obvious passing downs.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the closing spread in five straight games, meaning they’re slumping a bit as it relates to performing over expectations.
This still seems like a game where it could all come together. Studies would tell us KC’s recent turnover issues shouldn’t be expected to continue, while the defense also might be due to experience its share of better giveaway fortune.
The way the Chiefs’ passing game has been performing lately, a blowout is possible in any game where KC can avoid the catastrophic-type negative plays it’s had over the last two weeks.
I think we’ll see it here. Mahomes has played well in cold conditions before, and I think that’ll continue along with a slight uptick in play from the defense.
Give me KC in a rout for both the win and cover.
Chiefs 34, Seahawks 14
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 37, Texans 14 (Actual: Chiefs 30-24, OT) ❌
This year’s record vs. spread: 7-7
This story was originally published December 22, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
