Chiefs are getting played differently without Tyreek Hill — whether it’s working or not
Last season, a central storyline for the Kansas City Chiefs was quarterback Patrick Mahomes adjusting to two-deep-safety defensive looks.
The thought process behind that wasn’t complicated: The Chiefs had proven they could chuck the ball deep to receiver Tyreek Hill, so it made more sense for defenses to force Mahomes into shorter throws while hoping — somewhere along the line — Kansas City might make a mistake on a long drive.
What’s been fascinating about this 2022 season, then, is the about-face that’s occurred after the Chiefs traded away Hill in March.
Not only are defenses challenging Mahomes with fewer zone looks, but they’re actually testing him with the most man coverage that any signal-caller has seen this year.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs entered Week 6 with opponents playing man coverage against them 43.3% of the time — the highest mark in the league.
That number didn’t drop following Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to Buffalo. According to data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the Chiefs had 15 combined passing attempts against primary man coverages (Cover 0, 1 and Man 2) compared to 16 versus primary zone looks (Cover 2 Zone, 3, 4, 6).
The staggering part about that total was how much Buffalo appeared to cater itself to the Chiefs; in the five previous weeks, Bills opponents had just 30 combined passing attempts while going against man coverage, as Buffalo ranked as one of the most zone-heavy teams in all of football.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid on Wednesday described what his offense has seen from defenses as “a huge mix,” while also acknowledging his team has faced more man looks lately.
His solution for countering the change in philosophy was relatively simple, but also fundamental: “trying to defeat the guy that’s covering you.”
So has KC done that this season? It’s depended on the game, but probably more so than most would believe.
A week ago gives the best example. In Week 5, the Raiders put an immense focus on double- and triple-teaming tight end Travis Kelce, leaving themselves with mostly man coverage on KC’s other receivers.
So what happened? Mahomes and the Chiefs burned them.
In fact, according to SIS, the Chiefs’ offense piled up 12.69 expected points added against the Raiders’ Cover 0, 1 and 2 Man looks combined — a total higher than any other NFL offense has had against man coverage in any game this season.
According to SIS, the other stats the Chiefs put up against man that game: 14-for-21 passing, a 113.8 quarterback rating and 9.5 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (an advanced stat that also factors in sacks and interceptions).
Receivers Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling feasted on those looks the most, combining for six receptions and 124 yards in the Chiefs’ 30-29 home victory.
The Chiefs’ results were more mixed against Buffalo while facing man coverage: 8-for-15 passing, a 79.9 quarterback rating and 7.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Perhaps not coincidentally, Hardman and Valdes-Scantling had much quieter games, combining for one catch on two targets against man looks Sunday.
To say Kansas City has been disastrous against non-zones for the season would likely be an overstatement, though. The Chiefs’ adjusted net yards per attempt against man (7.7) ranks sixth in the NFL, while their total expected points added on those plays (20.50) is second behind only the Seattle Seahawks.
Whether it has been effective or not, playing man coverage seems to be the new vogue way to defend the Chiefs.
And for Mahomes — like last year — that simply means more adjusting on the fly.
“I think it’s just defenses are throwing us different pitches,” Mahomes said. “They know that last year was more shell and zone coverages, and they had some success with that. Then we kind of started beating that, and they went back to the man coverages again now.
“They’re doing a good job of trying to mix and match it, where they’re not gonna let us get the same coverage in the same situation every time. They’re going to keep changing it.”
This story was originally published October 20, 2022 at 7:30 AM.
