Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Why spread is a then-vs.-now debate
Details
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central time Monday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 7.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
The crystal ball here is in a slump, failing to correctly guess the Chiefs’ motivation level for the last two games (correct answer: not great vs. Colts, off-the-charts high for the Buccaneers).
And that brings us back to a Monday Night affair where the betting line sits in that tricky seven-point spot where one can easily talk themselves to the Chiefs’ side.
The Raiders, after all, are 1-3. And while they’ve been competitive in all four games, this has to be considered a discouraging start for a team that gave one away against Arizona and also envisioned itself to be in the AFC playoff picture from Week 1.
Football Outsiders’ numbers so far paint a disappointing story. The Raiders, in the all-compassing DVOA metric, rank 20th in offense, 20th in defense and 20th in special teams. That’s not bad enough to want things burned down, but also not good enough to feel like a .500-ish record is possible if the current level of play holds.
So what’s going well for the Raiders? Josh Jacobs is one thing, as the running back has revived his career in his fourth season while adding nearly a yard extra after contact per run this season. He’s been an elite player at his position thus far.
Receivers Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow (set to return after two weeks off following a concussion) also could pose major issues, especially against a Chiefs secondary that struggled some in coverage against Tampa Bay a week ago.
Las Vegas’ offensive line hasn’t been as much of a disaster as once expected, and Maxx Crosby on the other side continues to produce as one of the league’s best pass rushers, even if he’s not getting as much help from free-agent signing Chandler Jones as expected.
The Chiefs are the better team, and I think they win here. Covering the spread, though, gives me some pause, mostly because of how small samples can oftentimes trick us.
Before the season started, the Chiefs were slated as 4 1/2-point favorites in this game against the Raiders. And while KC has probably been slightly above expectations ... is that enough to move the line that 2 1/2 points? Something else to consider is that a couple of areas the Raiders have struggled (red-zone conversion, turnovers) can be a bit fluky, especially over four-game stretches.
It’s a long way of saying ... if the Raiders are who we thought they were before the season, you’d take the seven points in this game against KC.
I’ll do that here. Give me KC for the close win, but Vegas for the cover.
Chiefs 27, Raiders 24
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Las Vegas
Last game prediction: Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 20 (Actual: Chiefs 41-31) ❌
This year’s record vs. spread: 1-3
