A Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction: Time to overreact, or not?
Details
Kickoff: Noon Central time Sunday
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
Jesse Newell’s prediction
I’m typically the person who will caution everyone not to overreact to the previous week’s results.
Still ... I have to admit it’s hard not to do that with Indianapolis this week following an embarrassing 24-0 road loss to Jacksonville.
According to Football Outsiders’ measures, the Colts — against the Jaguars — had their worst single-game offensive performance since 1992. Quarterback Matt Ryan had arm-strength issues and was uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure from any direction.
Jonathan Taylor had just nine carries, and the offensive line played a part in surrendering five sacks while not opening up enough holes in the run game.
Defensively, Indianapolis was over-aggressive at times and hasn’t been as advertised with its pass rush or in coverage through two games. And while the run defense has been mostly sound, that’s more of a luxury than a necessity against the Chiefs, who tend to throw more than an average team no matter the circumstances.
The Chiefs have some problems of their own. PFF jokes aside, quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a few passes that the Chargers should’ve intercepted a week ago. And for a game, the Chiefs new additions at receiver seemed to have some chemistry issues with Mahomes while failing too often to beat single coverage.
Indianapolis hasn’t had a chance to play at home yet, so the Colts should get a nice boost at Lucas Oil Stadium. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is just 2-3 against Indianapolis while in KC, and last week’s score — as awful as it was for the Colts — doesn’t carry over to this week.
No. 1 Colts receiver Michael Pittman’s expected return from a quad injury can’t be understated either.
After two weeks of picking opposing teams to cover the spread against the Chiefs, though, I’m not feeling that here. Reid and his coaches had a few extra days to scout Indianapolis’ weaknesses; as we saw in the opening blowout against Arizona, that extra time typically results in the Chiefs dissecting the opponent’s tendencies and then exploiting them.
I see the Chiefs’ pass offense having much more success this week and defensive pressure causing the 37-year-old Ryan all sorts of issues as he battles Father Time.
Give me KC for both the win and cover.
Chiefs 30, Colts 21
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 28 (Actual: Chiefs 27-24) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 1-1
