Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers prediction: Can KC continue this Week 1 strength?

Details

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central time Thursday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: Amazon Prime or KSHB (Ch. 41) in Kansas City

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 4.5

Jesse Newell’s prediction

No doubt about it: The Chiefs looked impressive in their season-opening victory on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.

Patrick Mahomes didn’t seem to miss a beat without receiver Tyreek Hill, spreading the ball around while evading pressure when needed. The Chiefs offensive line opened up holes in the run game, and a young defense avoided big mistakes while remaining sound in coverage on the back end against dangerous QB Kyler Murray.

The Chargers will be a different type of test on Thursday night. Though Los Angeles sneaked by the Las Vegas Raiders, 24-19, in its opener, advanced stats pointed to a much more lopsided result with the Chargers displaying the type of passing explosiveness you’d expect from a Justin Herbert-led offense.

Defensively, LA looks improved from last year as well. Most concerning for KC is the pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, who graded out as the Chargers’ top two defensive players in Week 1 via Pro Football Focus’ analysis.

Injuries should play a factor in this one. The Chiefs will be without one of their starting corners in Trent McDuffie, while the Chargers will likely not have receiver Keenan Allen and defensive back JC Jackson — two of the team’s top players.

For the Chiefs, this game could come down to how much they can establish themselves against a glaring Chargers weakness. LA had one of the worst run defenses a season ago, and it didn’t do much to improve in that area this offseason while banking on the fact that other areas are usually more important when trying to win football games.

This remains a mismatch on paper, though. The Chiefs’ offensive line posted Pro Football Focus’ best run-blocking grade (by far) in Week 1, and while KC’s backs aren’t as dynamic as many other NFL teams, they showed themselves capable against Arizona of capitalizing on advantageous circumstances.

It still feels like this one will be close. The Chargers have won three of their last four at Arrowhead (yes, KC rested its starters in the 2020-21 season finale), and Herbert’s playmaking gives the Chargers a chance in any game they play.

If the Chiefs replicate their Game 1 running success, I like their chances ... even if it’s a slimmer margin than Vegas expects.

Chiefs 31, Chargers 28

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Los Angeles

Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Cardinals 24 (Actual: Chiefs 44-21) ❌

This year’s record vs. spread: 0-1

This story was originally published September 13, 2022 at 6:16 PM.