Who the Kansas City Chiefs could play next week ... and who they might want to play
For three years, the Chiefs earned the luxury of spending Wild Card Weekend watching the AFC playoff field fight to keep its season alive, all the while their own spot in the Divisional Round had already been guaranteed with a first-round bye.
That’s not the case this year. The Chiefs have to get by the Steelers in the Wild Card Round on Sunday in order to reach the Divisional Round for the fourth straight season. And despite that blowout win over Pittsburgh three weeks ago, they insist they’re taking the game as seriously as they should. Anything can happen.
But it won’t stop us from taking a peek ahead anyway.
What follows is more hypothetical — only relevant if the Chiefs win Sunday — but it also could be reality in a few days. The Chiefs have goals that stretch beyond one playoff win. They’ve talked about the Super Bowl since July. So why not consider the route to get there?
That path will be altered by what takes place in the two AFC matchups scheduled for Saturday — the Patriots at Bills, and the Raiders at Bengals. Which means by the time the Chiefs take the field Sunday night against the Steelers, they will know which opponent awaits should they win.
As the No. 1 seed, the Titans get the lowest remaining seed in the AFC Divisional Round. That would leave the No. 2-seeded Chiefs as playing the next lowest seed.
So what’s that mean as far as the possibilities? Well, under a scenario in which the Chiefs advance, the No. 7 Steelers would obviously be gone. The remaining lowest seed is the No. 6 Patriots, who would travel to Tennessee with a win. The Chiefs, therefore, cannot see the Patriots next round.
So that leaves three possibilities — the No. 3 Bills, No. 4 Bengals or No. 5 Raiders. That’s the list.
Let’s look at the the potential matchups with each of those three. Consider it a guide for who the Chiefs might want to play next week — should they advance.
Buffalo Bills (No. 3 seed, 11-6, AFC East champion)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: Up front. It’s more than commonplace that playoff games are won at the line of scrimmage — it’s often reality. The Chiefs should have an advantage in the trenches, potentially on both sides of the ball. The Bills have the sixth-worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL, and their pass-blocking rates middle of the pack, per Pro Football Focus.
Add to that, they’d catch the Bills at a better time than they did earlier this season, when Buffalo marched into Kansas City on a stormy night and cruised to a 38-20 Week 5 win. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has cooled considerably since the start of the season, throwing 12 interceptions in his final 10 games. He had just a 84.2 quarterback rating over those 10 contests, not exactly a small sample size.
Cause for concern: We don’t need to harp on that October meeting, but we can’t ignore it, either. The Bills’ shell defenses gave the Chiefs fits, making Patrick Mahomes throw 54 passes to get 272 yards — a 5.04 yards per attempt that stands as the second worst of his season.
Turns out, the Bills gave a lot of offenses fits. They allowed the fewest yards per game (272.2) and points per game (17.0) in the NFL. They have a particularly stout secondary, even after a season-ending injury to cornerback Tre’Davious White, and gave up only 163 passing yards per game.
Cincinnati Bengals (No. 4 seed, 10-7, AFC North champion)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: Same as they did just two weeks ago — on the offensive side. The Bengals allowed 5.55 yards per play, 21st in the NFL, and the back end struggled all year. In a Week 17 matchup, Mahomes completed 26 of 35 throws for 259 yards and two touchdowns, and he had three dropped passes, one of which could’ve gone for 60 yards. That was a pattern for the Cincinnati secondary, which allowed nearly 250 passing yards per game.
There’s one more edge, too. While the Bengals have collected skill position players, it’s come at the sacrifice at protecting their franchise quarterback. The Bengals offensive line grades poorly in its pass blocking, evident by the fact Joe Burrow gets sacked at the second-highest rate of any quarterback.
Cause for concern: You remember, right? The Bengals have some dudes. Burrow, for starters. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said Burrow reminds him of a young Tom Brady. That might be a a stretch, but he can sure sling it. He led the NFL with a 70.4% completion percentage, and if you think that came as a result of easy throws, the stats would disagree. He completed 6% over expectation, per Next Gen Stats.
Has some good options, too. We probably should’ve started with Ja’Marr Chase, given the Chiefs had no answer for him in the first meeting, when he caught 11 of 12 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Chase made it clear the Chiefs cannot attempt to defend him one-on-one in key situations, but double teams would require adjustments elsewhere on the field, and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd would like the sound of that.
Las Vegas Raiders (No. 5 seed, 10-7, AFC West Wild Card)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: The results speak for themselves here. The Chiefs absolutely destroyed the Raiders not once but twice already — 41-14 in Vegas and 48-9 a month later in Kansas City. Here are Mahomes’ combined numbers in those two games: 55 of 74, 664 yards, 7 touchdowns. So, yeah, that’s one advantage.
Another? The other quarterback doesn’t fare too well in the rivalry. Derek Carr is 3-13 in his career against the Chiefs with an 81.7 quarterback rating.
Cause for concern: The adage that it’s difficult to beat a team three times applies, but even more so against a team that went through the kind of turbulence the Raiders have experienced and still came through the other side as a playoff team. The Raiders have won four straight against quality competition, and a matchup with the Chiefs would mean they extended that streak to five.