What Vegas odds say about Kansas City Chiefs’ chances in playoffs, Super Bowl chase
The AFC route to the Super Bowl technically runs through Tennessee — the Titans are the conference’s No. 1 seed and its sole owners of a first-round bye — but the forecasters are still hedging their bets with the team that has navigated this path the past two seasons.
The Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to reach the Super Bowl, according to both the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, as well as analytical metrics that simulate the results of every game.
It is, however, a more treacherous track than either of the past two seasons, if you’re inclined to follow those metrics. And that’s mostly because of the obvious — the Chiefs’ return to the Super Bowl would require an additional victory this time around.
Even so, the Chiefs are listed as a 2-to-1 favorite to play in their third straight Super Bowl, according to multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Titans, even with the aid of having Wild Card Weekend off, are tied for second on the list at 7-to-2. The Bills have the same 7-to-2 odds. The Patriots (9-to-1), Bengals (9-to-1), Raiders (20-to-1) and Steelers (25-to-1) round out the field.
The Chiefs will play host to the Steelers at 7:15 p.m. Sunday in the AFC Wild Card Round — the first time since Patrick Mahomes took over as the franchise’s quarterback that they’ve not earned a first-round playoff bye.
It’s an additional obstacle but one the forecasters still envision them hurdling. FiveThirtyEight, which rates teams based on its results and quality of opponents, among other factors, gives the Chiefs a 38% chance of making the Super Bowl on Feb. 13 in Inglewood, California. The Titans trail at 31%, followed by the Bills (16%), Bengals (8%), Patriots (4%), Raiders (1%) and Steelers (1%).
The Chiefs have played host to three straight AFC Championship Games, but if they were to see the Titans at that stage, they’d have to travel to Nashville. If the Titans stumble in the divisional round, the No. 2-seeded Chiefs are next in line to host this year’s AFC Championship Game.
So the oddsmakers still like the Chiefs in the AFC — and they really like them this weekend. They are favored by 13 points against the Steelers, by far the largest line of the six games scheduled for Wild Card Weekend. Elsewhere in the AFC, the Bengals are favored by 6 1/2 points against the Raiders, and the Bills are favored 4 1/2 points against the Patriots. Both of those games will be played Saturday.
FiveThirtyEight sees it similarly — it gives the Chiefs an 86% chance to beat the Steelers.
That’s where it stands, for now. Here’s where we should probably remind you that few of the simulations and models had this weekend on their projected schedules. The Steelers were given just a 9% chance to even make the playoffs heading into this past weekend, but they got some unlikely help when the Jaguars, owners of the NFL’s worst record, beat the Colts and jump-started a chaotic weekend.
Another one could await.
This story was originally published January 11, 2022 at 5:00 AM.