What the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-Green Bay Packers game Sunday
You might have heard the Chiefs caught a bit of a break this week. Yes, the first-place Packers are coming to town, but they’ll be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player.
Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss Sunday’s game in Kansas City.
So just how big of a break is it for the Chiefs?
A full touchdown. So say the Las Vegas oddsmakers.
The betting market has moved all over the place this week, eventually settling on the Chiefs by 7 points on their home field against the Packers.
After the Chiefs had opened as slight favorites this week, the initial bets were heavy on the Packers before Rodgers’ absence was announced. The betting line moved to a pick ‘em at several books.
The line was temporarily removed from after Rodgers tested positive before re-opening at 8 1/2 points. That’s quite a swing for one just player. Now, it seems to be stabilizing on the favored Chiefs by 7 points against the Packers and backup quarterback Jordan Love, a first-round pick in 2020 who has thrown seven career passes. That’s only 6,838 fewer than Rodgers, a three-time MVP award winner.
The over/under absorbed a similar swing after Rodgers’ positive COVID-19 test — it fell by a full touchdown to 48 points.
Love is an unknown, but it doesn’t stop the bookmakers from attempting to predict exactly how he’ll fare. His over/under for total passing yards is 231 1/2. Rodgers is actually averaging only slightly more than that — 236.8 yards per game — this season.
Of note here, even with the quarterback change: Green Bay has the second best record against the spread this season at 7-1. Dallas remains perfect in relation to the betting line at 7-0. The Chiefs are second worst at 2-6, failing to cover last week’s 10 1/2-point line against the Giants.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-4)
When: 3:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
Betting line: Chiefs -7
Over/under: 48 points
Packers against the spread this season: 7-1
Chiefs against the spread this season: 2-6
This story was originally published November 5, 2021 at 11:33 AM.