KC Chiefs-Bills prediction: If it comes down to defense, home team could be in trouble
In a clash of AFC titans, the Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football and the winner is going to feel good about its place in the conference race.
For the loser, meanwhile, Is it too soon to think the AFC No. 1 seed would be out of reach?
Here’s a simple breakdown: The Chiefs defeated the Bills twice by double-digit scores last season. In those games, the Chiefs’ offense had 15 non-kneel down possessions, scored touchdowns on eight, kicked three field goals, punted three times and lost a fumble.
The Bills were terrific in 2020. But not against the Chiefs.
The Bills are better defensively this year, and the Chiefs didn’t take a step back on offense. They might even better in that department than they were a year ago.
But the Chiefs’ defense has been inexplicably woeful so far this season. Yes, they’ve been dealing with injures, and perhaps Frank Clark, Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton return in time for Sunday’s game. But there’s been no clear explanation as to why they at times seem slow and out of position.
Here’s another thing. Average Chiefs final score this fall amid their 2-2 start? 33-31 Average Bills score? 33-11.
Yes, the Chiefs have played a more difficult schedule. The Bills have faced Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills in the past three games. Hello, Patrick Mahomes, not to mention Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
But look for the Bills and Josh Allen to have more success than they did last season against the Chiefs, who will have to keep scoring to hang with Buffalo this time. The team that settles for field goals, like the Philadelphia Eagles did last weekend, likely doesn’t win.
For the first time this season, the Chiefs don’t get the nod here.
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m.
TV/radio: NBC (Ch. 41), WDAF (106.5 FM)
Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2
Blair Kerkhoff’s prediction: Bills 35-33