What the Vegas odds say about the KC Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances and their 2021 season
Even if they needed one more victory to commemorate the season with a flag atop the east end zone, the Chiefs still won more football games in 2020 than they’d ever won before.
So with an added regular-season game this year — the first NFL slate featuring 17 — the Chiefs should be projected to one-up themselves and break the record again, right?
That would depend on which data you prefer.
The Chiefs’ over/under regular-season win total sits at 12 1/2 in the Las Vegas sportsbooks, and that’s shy of the 14-2 mark they reached a year ago.
On the other hand, the game-by-game projections look promising.
Really promising.
Days before their season opener, the Chiefs are favored in 16 of their 17 games. The other? It’s a pick ‘em.
OK, here’s where we must qualify this is not only subject to change but sure to change — some lines will grow, others will shrink; and some might even flip from a favorite to an underdog. But for now, the Chiefs are not slated to be an underdog even once. When they march into Baltimore to face the Ravens in Week 2, it’s the lone time they won’t be a favorite — the line is currently even.
In that case, it should come as no surprise that the Chiefs will enter the season as the Super Bowl favorites — listed at 5-to-1 to overturn last year’s result. The team that beat them in Super Bowl LV — Tampa Bay — is second on the sheet at 7-to-1. The Bills (11-1), Rams (14-1), Ravens (14-1), Packers (14-1) and 49ers (14-1) are next.
The Chiefs are an overwhelming favorite to at least reach a third straight Super Bowl — 2-to-1 to win the AFC. The Bills (7-1) are a distant second in that race.
Better yet are the Chiefs’ chances in the AFC West, a division they have dominated in recent seasons, winning five straight titles. They are 1-3 there, meaning it would require a wager of $300 just to win $100. The rest of that group: Chargers (9-2), Broncos (7-1) and Raiders (20-1).
And if you’re going to have that kind of team success, it will likely be propelled by some individual accolades, right? Quarterback Patrick Mahomes sits atop the MVP odds charts at 5-1, a sizable gap in front of the reigning winner, Aaron Rodgers, who is 10-1.
Here’s how the Vegas oddsmakers envision the Chiefs’ season shaking out, with the projected lines game by game.
Week 1: Browns at Chiefs (-6)
Week 2: Chiefs at Ravens (pick ‘em)
Week 3: Chargers at Chiefs (-7)
Week 4: Chiefs (-8) at Eagles
Week 5: Bills at Chiefs (-4 1/2)
Week 6: Chiefs (-6 1/2) at Washington Football Team
Week 7: Chiefs (-4 1/2) at Titans
Week 8: Giants at Chiefs (-10)
Week 9: Packers at Chiefs (-7)
Week 10: Chiefs (-7 1/2) at Raiders
Week 11: Cowboys at Chiefs (-7 1/2)
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: Broncos at Chiefs (-9 1/2)
Week 14: Raiders at Chiefs (-10 1/2)
Week 15: Chiefs (-6 1/2) at Chargers
Week 16: Steelers at Chiefs (-8 1/2)
Week 17: Chiefs (-7 1/2) at Bengals
Week 18: Chiefs (-3) at Broncos
So just how much more difficult is the Chiefs’ home schedule at Arrowhead Stadium this season? A year ago, they were favored by double digits in every game except the finale — when Mahomes and several starters took the week off. In 2020, only two of their nine home games feature a double-digit line.
For now.
Note: The odds and lines are averaged between several prominent sportsbooks.