Here’s an early look at the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game
The Chiefs went 22 seasons between playoff wins, 22 seasons in which the most memorable outcomes of a generation were missed field goals, a game without a punt, a quarterback catching his own pass for a touchdown and ... well, we don’t need to rehash them all.
There’s a point to bringing this up, though. In a week, Arrowhead Stadium will house history of a much different kind. It will become first venue to host three consecutive AFC Championship Games after the Chiefs beat the Browns 22-17 in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday.
Not without cost. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes left in the third quarter with an injury that prompted him to enter the concussion protocol.
His status for next week — unknown for the moment — will loom over the AFC Championship Game.
The Buffalo Bills are coming to Kansas City (Sunday, 5:40 p.m.) with a trip to Super Bowl LV on the line.
These two teams have played at this stage before, but little did they know it would be so long before either returned. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-13 in the 1993 season AFC Championship Game in Buffalo.
It would be 22 seasons before the Chiefs would win another playoff game. And Sunday marks the Bills’ first trip back to the AFC title game since.
Nearly three decades later, these teams are built much differently, though there is one similarity — prominent quarterbacks. The 1993 season had Joe Montana and Jim Kelly. This year, we’ve got Mahomes (maybe?) and Josh Allen, two players who will likely finish second and third in this year’s most valuable player race.
For awhile now, it’s seemed that if anyone in the AFC could beat the Chiefs, it would be the Bills — even if they already failed once before.
The Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 in a Week 6 game that didn’t really even feel that close — they seized total control of the game over the middle quarters.
They ran for a season-best 245 yards, with the Bills playing a two-safety shell so deep that they dared the Chiefs to beat them with the run. And then they did. Bills coach Sean McDermott has since implied he had no regrets about that strategy, a potential indication the Chiefs won’t find many receivers open downfield.
That concept, of course, will depend on Mahomes’ availability.
The Bills are 11-1 since that Week 6 meeting, their only loss on a Hail Mary in Arizona. Absent that prayer, they would be riding a 12-game winning streak into Arrowhead Stadium.
And with good reason. There is a lot to like about the Bills, even if Saturday’s 17-3 win against the Ravens didn’t exactly exude confidence either of those teams would be capable of upsetting the defending champions. The Bills averaged 31.3 points per game — more than the Chiefs, who finished at 29.6 — with Allen showing significant growth in accuracy.
He did have some help there, with the team adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Diggs promptly led the league in yards and receptions.
The Bills defense had its struggles early this season, but over their eight-game winning streak, they’ve allowed 17.1 points per game. Sound familiar? The Chiefs used that formula last season — coupling a late-year defensive surge to their high-powered offense.
The Bills do have some weaknesses defensively, though, and they’re well-known to the Chiefs.
The run defense. Pro Football Focus ranks it as the second-worst in football. The Bills allow first downs on 30.2% of opposing rushes, the worst mark in the league.
The defensive line struggles to pressure the quarterback consistently, too. They hurry the throw on just 7.9% of snaps, 27th in the NFL, despite blitzing 35.8% of the time, 8th most in the NFL.
So they’ll either have to bring extra numbers against the Chiefs pass offense — rarely a good strategy — or they’ll have to allow them extra time to operate while also conceding gains against the run. They opted for the latter last time. The Chiefs won.
This time? We’ll know in a week.
This story was originally published January 17, 2021 at 5:12 PM.