Who Chiefs-Browns winner could see in AFC title game ... and who might have an edge
The first mention of a Super Bowl came in the opening question of Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s Zoom news conference Monday, and he was ready for it.
The question actually focused mostly on the effect last year’s championship, but that didn’t matter. The term itself — Super Bowl — prompted some sort of automatic reflex.
“You try not to look that far ahead,” Reid said. “You’re trying to look and just make sure that you take care of business against the Browns.”
As the Chiefs prepare for their Super Bowl defense Sunday at 2:05 p.m. against the Browns, they will focus solely on the single game rather than the entire tournament.
But that doesn’t mean we have to do the same, right?
The winner moves on to the AFC Championship Game the following week, and the twist here is that the other half of the equation will have been solved by the time the Chiefs and Browns even take the field.
The Ravens and Bills will meet in Buffalo Saturday at 7:15 p.m. in the other AFC Divisional Round game.
So in that spirit, this might constitute as something of a rooting guide ... just in case Sunday plays out the way you want.
Here’s a look at what awaits either the Chiefs or Browns in the AFC Championship Game.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5 regular season, No. 5 seed)
What makes them tough: The adage that quarterback Lamar Jackson can’t win in the playoffs? Or the one that says the Ravens can’t come from behind?
Gone. And gone.
Jackson and the Ravens erased an early 10-point deficit to win at Tennessee last week, and they’re looking more and more like the team that finished 14-2 last year rather than the one that needed to win in the season’s final week just to make the playoffs this year.
They’ve won six straight games, and they led the NFL in points over the last five weeks of the regular season. They totaled 191.9 rush yards per game for the season, far and away most in the league.
And the defense allowed just 18.9 points per game, second best in the NFL before the Rams, who gave up 18.5. The Ravens held the Titans to 209 yards in last week’s AFC Wild Card round.
There are a lot of things going right in Baltimore right now.
Where you could expose them: The passing game remains a worry. Even if Jackson got over the playoff hump last week, he did it with his legs, not his arm. Could he keep pace in a shootout with one of the league’s best offenses, like, say, the Chiefs? That’s a real question. The Ravens finished dead last in passing yards this season.
If it’s the Chiefs and Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, the former has to like its chances for one simple reason — history. Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against the Ravens, and he’s shredded their blitz-happy defense all three times. He’s totaled 9 touchdowns and one interception in those three meetings, passing for at least 374 yards in each.
And as good as Jackson has been over the past two seasons, the Chiefs had no problems against him in Week 3, when he passed for all of 97 yards on 28 attempts.
Buffalo Bills (13-3 regular season, No. 2 seed)
What makes them tough: As good as the Chiefs offense has been this season, you know the Bills are actually scoring at a higher clip? They average 31.3 points per game, with quarterback Josh Allen having taken a giant step forward in his third season. It certainly helps that he added wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who led the NFL in both receptions and yards.
Including last weekend’s win against the Colts, the Bills are 10-1 since losing to the Chiefs in Week 6, their lone loss coming on a Hail Mary in Arizona.
The Bills defense has its flaws, but they did finish third in the NFL with 26 takeaways.
Where you can expose them: Up front. The Bills allowed first downs on 30.2% of opposing rushes, the highest mark in football. Pro Football Focus ranks them as the second-worst performing run defense in the league, a statistic that shouldn’t surprise anyone here. The Chiefs rushed for 245 yards in their Week 6 win in Buffalo, led by a career-high 161 from rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The defensive line isn’t much better with the pass rush. Despite blitzing 35.8% of the time (8th in the NFL), the Bills forced hurries on just 7.9% of all snaps (27th in the NFL).