Should Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes win the NFL MVP award? Perhaps, but one problem ...
The TV cameras panned to Patrick Mahomes last Sunday, the Chiefs quarterback standing on the sideline and wearing a windbreaker. He skipped the pads and helmet, his regular season completed at 15 games with the Chiefs already having secured the top seed in the AFC.
But the cameras locked in on him anyway, prompting a discussion that could follow Mahomes every season for the next decade.
The MVP race.
The contest shifted late this season to two men — Mahomes ... and the quarterback to whom many seem to like to compare him, the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers.
“I think if Aaron finds a way to win today in Chicago, he’s probably going to win that award,” FOX analyst Brock Huard said on Sunday’s telecast. “But they just make this game — it is so hard to play — (look) so incredibly easy at times.”
To which one of Mahomes’ teammates spoke up.
Chiefs right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been a gameday social media guru — really, you should follow — while on injured reserve, tweeting along as the game unfolds.
And on this topic, he wrote: “I like how the MVP debate is like ‘well if Rodgers wins today he’ll probably win it.’ Shouldn’t our guy get credit for winning so much he doesn’t have to play today??”
It’s a valid point.
But was the race already over before Sunday? Does Mahomes still stand a chance? Should he?
Let’s investigate.
The basics
Patrick Mahomes: 14-1 record, 4,740 yards (2nd), 8.1 yards per attempt (4), 38 touchdowns (4), 6 interceptions, 82.9 QBR (2), 108.2 rating (3)
Aaron Rodgers: 13-3 record, 4,299 yards (7th), 8.2 yards per attempt (3), 48 touchdowns (1), 5 interceptions, 84.4 QBR (1), 121.5 rating (1)
The deeper analytics
• Rodgers was the more accurate passer in the obvious stat (70.7 completion percentage compared to 66.3 for Mahomes), but NextGenStats demonstrates the gap shouldn’t have been nearly that large. It credits Rodgers with completing 4.4% more passes than the average quarterback would have completed on the same throws, a stat that factors in a number of things, most notably receiver separation and depth of the receiver. In the same stat, Mahomes completed 0.9% fewer passes than he should have. That’s a big difference.
• Rodgers led the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which rated him 33.7% better than the average quarterback when presented with the same game situations. Mahomes was a close second at 31.7%.
• Mahomes was far and away the most efficient quarterback on the most critical downs — third and fourth. According to a Pro Football Focus model, the Mahomes-led Chiefs converted those downs 13% more often than expected, a rate that more than doubled the Rodgers-led Packers. Nobody else in the league finished higher than 10% in the same category.
Supporting cast
• No quarterback in football enjoyed a more valuable weapon than Travis Kelce. He finished second in the NFL with 1,416 yards (despite sitting Week 17), breaking a single-season record for tight ends. Pro Football Focus graded him at 93.5 for the season, tops among all tight ends and wide receivers combined. Oh, yeah, we should probably mention the Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, too — he finished eighth in yards and second in touchdowns with 15.
But Rodgers wasn’t deprived of options. Davantae Adams led the NFL with 18 touchdowns, and finished as the highest-graded wideout, per Pro Football Focus. There’s lots to like about both these casts.
• Rodgers operated behind the best pass-blocking unit in football. The Packers had a team pass-block win rate of 74%, per ESPN analytics, three percent better than any other team in the league. The Chiefs ranked higher than you might think here. At 63%, they were sixth. According to Pro Football Reference, Rodgers was pressured on just 14.4% of his dropbacks, least in the NFL. The Chiefs allowed a pressure rate of 20.9% this season. That’s an additional clean pocket once every 15 throws for Rodgers compared to Mahomes.
• Rodgers was aided by an efficient running game, led by 1,100-yard rusher Aaron Jones. The Packers averaged 4.8 yards per carry. On the whole, Football Outsiders ranked their run game fifth in the NFL. The Chiefs, who averaged 4.5 yards per carry, were 13th.
Argument for Mahomes
He’s the best player on the best team, and the Chiefs’ offense depends on him more than the Packers’ offense depends on Rodgers. They pass the ball more often. The turn to him on third and fourth downs more often. And, again, he finished 14-1 with an eight-point loss to the Raiders. It’s hard to find a clunker in his 15 games —he threw a touchdown in every game; his worst rating was 79.5; and he eclipsed at least 200 yards in every game.
You can’t point to him for a loss. Rodgers, on the other hand, had a miserable afternoon in Tampa, finishing 16 of 35 for 160 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. But should a season award really be decided by one off night? Probably not.
The argument against Mahomes
Look, if Mahomes isn’t the pick, it’s not so much him losing the award as it would Rodgers winning it. But the race turned over the final month of the season, in which Mahomes played arguably his worst football.
That’s all relative, of course. But he had six games this year with a rating under 100, and four of them were his final four weeks. His completion percentage was just 60.0% in that time frame. He looked fooled at times against Atlanta and just plain inaccurate others. The final impression matters in these races, and Rodgers was just plain better in December.
In the final six weeks, Rodgers threw 19 touchdowns and one interception, his quarterback rating eclipsing 125 in five of the six. That ain’t bad.
What they said about it
Mahomes: “It’s something that you would love to have, but it’s not necessarily something that you strive for. To me, it’s about winning football games. I’ve always believed that if you win football games and play the game the right way, that staff handles itself. I’d obviously love to have it and love to have that trophy, but if it doesn’t happen and we find a way to win the Super Bowl, I’ll be perfectly fine with it — I promise you.”
Rodgers (per Associated Press): It’s not why you play the game. You play the game to dominate, to compete and to win rings. But anyone who says those things aren’t on their mind or not important to them is not the type of competitor I am. That stuff is important to me. And I do relish the opportunity to be in the mix. It means I’m playing well and our team is in good position, as well.”
Bottom line
Mahomes spent the middle part of the season as the presumptive favorite for his second MVP, after he surpassed Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson in the conversation. (Remember that?) But Rodgers has overtaken the lead here, and the statistics and analytics prove why.
He’s one of the best to ever do it, and at 37, he finished with career-highs in touchdowns and completion percentage. He led the league in both, along with yards per attempt, quarterback rating, touchdown percentage and interception percentage. Mahomes’ final month didn’t help. But Rodgers has done plenty to win the award.
This story was originally published January 8, 2021 at 5:00 AM.