Breaking down the race for the AFC’s top seed between the Chiefs and Steelers
Although he was traded to Washington nearly three years ago, Alex Smith could help the Chiefs big-time this weekend.
The Chiefs trail the Steelers in the race for the one and only bye in the AFC playoff field, and Pittsburgh’s next game is at home Monday against Washington. The starting quarterback for Washington is Smith.
So Chiefs fans will be rooting for Smith to have a huge game against the Steelers.
With five games remaining in the NFL’s regular season, it’s a two-horse race for the top spot in the AFC. Per PlayoffStatus.com, every AFC team other than the Chiefs and Steelers has a 1% chance or worse of getting the AFC’s lone and coveted bye for Wild Card Weekend.
If the Chiefs can catch the Steelers for the best record in the AFC, here’s how the tiebreakers work for the NFL playoffs:
- Head-to-head
- Best winning percentage in conference games
- Best winning percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
The Steelers and Chiefs don’t play this regular season, and Pittsburgh holds an edge in conference games. But if it comes down to tiebreaker No. 3, the common opponents for the Chiefs and Steelers are the Bills, Broncos, Ravens and Texans.
The Chiefs are 4-0 against those teams with only the Broncos left to play again. That game is Sunday night. Pittsburgh is 4-0 with only the Bills left to play. So Chiefs fans will be rooting for Josh Allen and Buffalo, as well.
Here’s the outlook for the Chiefs and Steelers heading down the stretch of the regular season.
Steelers
Record: 11-0
Conference record: 8-0
Remaining schedule: Monday vs. Washington; Dec. 13 at Bills; Dec. 21 at Bengals; Dec. 27 vs. Colts; Jan. 3: at Browns
Strength of remaining schedule: Sixth-easiest in AFC
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: 70%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: 65%
Chiefs
Record: 10-1
Conference record: 8-1
Remaining schedule: Sunday vs. Broncos; Dec. 13 at Dolphins; Dec. 20 at Saints; Dec. 27 vs. Falcons; Jan. 3 vs. Chargers
Strength of remaining schedule: Fifth-easiest in AFC
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via PlayoffStatus.com: 30%
Chance of being No. 1 seed, via FiveThirtyEight.com: 35%
Note: Strength of schedule for both teams comes from PlayoffStatus.com; FiveThirtyEight.com’s NFL outlook can be found here
This story was originally published December 3, 2020 at 10:28 AM.
