Patrick Mahomes isn’t putting up gaudy stats. Why? In part, these intended decisions
Patrick Mahomes was only a few minutes removed from his quietest outing of 2020 when he bumped into teammate Tyrann Mathieu on their way to the post-game podium.
They struck up a conversation about the 43-16 blowout in Denver aided by defensive and special teams touchdowns but not much in the passing game, and Mahomes felt compelled to explain how this all used to work so differently. In his first season as a starter, he would have tried to force throws on days like this. He would have needed to force some throws just to keep pace.
But he made a decision late last year to take fewer risks, a self-commitment that coincided with a defensive awakening. It’s hard to gauge the exact variation because that would require getting into the mind of Mahomes — he’s the only one who truly knows whether or not he would or would not have thrown a pass.
But there are some numbers to prove his assertion plausible, if not likely, and we’ll get to those. Some anecdotal evidence, too. And then there’s the fact that he has separated the two methodologies so much that he refers to that risk-taking guy as Young Patrick, as if it’s an alter ego.
And this is where we remind you that Mahomes turned 25 six weeks ago.
“I mean you watch back games of me playing early in my career — there are some throws that I wouldn’t have made (now) because they were dumb decisions at the time,” Mahomes said. “But there are some throws that I hope I still do make.
“It’s kind of playing with that fine line of being aggressive as you possibly can but not overly aggressive. I try to look back on every experience and learn from it.”
A change in decision-making
In the 37 career starts that he’s completed — we’re subtracting the 2019 Denver game in which he exited in the first half — Mahomes has been held under 240 yards just seven times.
Four of those have been this season. After one of them, his two backup quarterbacks told him they’d never seen him play better. And they pointed to one reason.
Risk aversion.
In 2018, the most valuable player went for it all. Mahomes led the league in deep passes that season, 92 attempts of 20-plus yards, according to Pro Football Focus. He threw six interceptions on those attempts (a 6.5% interception rate), but hey, he never shied away from it.
“My nature always wants me to take that shot if I get that chance,” Mahomes said.
His nature hasn’t changed.
His decisions have.
The examples can be hard to distinguish on film, but one arrived Sunday in Denver. As the Broncos brought a blitz, Mahomes turned to his left, hoping Le’Veon Bell would be an outlet, but Bell had yet to turn his head and look for the ball. Mahomes tucked it and absorbed the sack. With the Chiefs leading and in field goal range, he didn’t want to throw a dangerous pass.
“Something like that, now he’ll take that sack or try to escape and get what he can get,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “He might not have done that when he was younger.”
So, no, this isn’t all about throwing fewer deep passes. It’s about calculated risk versus unnecessary risk. And with a defense that ranks ninth in the NFL in points against, that line is moving. The equation has changed.
But this season, it does happen to show up more in the lack of deep throws. With defenses refusing to allow the Chiefs to beat them over the top, those have become the riskiest passes.
Mahomes is slinging fewer of them. In 2018, his MVP year, Mahomes’ average pass traveled 9.2 yards downfield, per NextGen Stats, which ranked fifth in the league. In 2019, it fell to 8.6 yards, 12th in the league. In 2020, it’s dipped to 7.7, 24th in the NFL.
His average completed pass has tracked a similar trajectory — from 6.4 to 6.2 to 5.8. The yards per game has dipped from 318.6 to 287.9 to 271.3. And he’s tied for eighth in the league with 29 deep-pass attempts at 4.1 per game. (He was at 5.8 in 2018.)
The change in decision-making shows up in one other spot — interceptions.
Mahomes threw 12 of them in 2018, at a rate of 2.1% of his attempts. This season, he’s thrown just one, and earlier this week, tight end Travis Kelce took the blame for it, indicating he ran the wrong route. Mahomes’ 0.4% interception rate is the lowest in football.
And it’s one of the reasons for this: Mahomes still leads Football Outsiders’ metric of DVOA, a rating system it uses to determine the value of a quarterback per play.
Less gaudy stats.
Just as valuable performance.
It might not prompt another MVP award this season — though he’s still second in the running for that, per Vegas oddsmakers — but it’s the path Mahomes has determined offers the Chiefs the best chance to win. The defense isn’t what it was in 2018. He doesn’t need to be what he was in 2018, either.
It requires restraint. A lot of restraint. And often times it requires a reminder. Mahomes has found himself reminding himself to be careful, sometimes before a drive, when he sees the score. Sometimes before a play, when in field goal range. Sometimes even as the play is already unfolding, leaving a split-second decision.
“It’s a battle that I have with my nature — I want to throw it and take the risk every single time,” Mahomes said. “But games like the other day when we’re up by a lot of points, you have to realize that you don’t have to take that risk whenever your defense is playing like they are and specials teams is doing what they do.”
Still a gunslinger ... if he needs to be
In a playoff game in January, tight end Travis Kelce sought out his quarterback on the sideline, still amazed at a play from earlier in the game.
Mahomes had thrown a ball to an area he expected Kelce to be rather than an area in which Kelce was actually supposed to be. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s where Kelce ended up.
“I don’t understand how you know what I’m doing,” Kelce said. “There is nothing telling you I was going to do that, and the ball was in the air before I did it.”
“That’s what I wanted you to do,” Mahomes replied.
He took a chance.
The Chiefs had trailed by 24 points in the game, and then Mahomes took over. That day arrived after his defense had been one of the best in football down the stretch run and therefore after Mahomes reached the conclusion that he needed to adjust his own style.
But he can — and will — flip it back when he needs it. Young Patrick is still in there, ready when called.
You’ll see it again. Truth be told, his coaches know he’s dying to unleash it. They’ve spent weeks praising him for instead taking what defenses are allowing.
“He’s a gunslinger,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said. “He wants to go out there and show off exactly what he can do.”
If you’re wondering if this is the new Patrick Mahomes, well, yes, because that’s what defenses are insisting he be.
But if you’re wondering if it’s permanent?
Hardly.
“Whenever we get into these tight situations,” Mahomes said. “I’m sure I’ll be able to take the risk and flip it right back around.”
This story was originally published November 1, 2020 at 5:00 AM.