Make it, take it? NFL proposal could give Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes more possessions
The scenario is equal parts entirely realistic and absurdly fanciful.
Let’s start with the practical: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes drops back and fires a touchdown pass. You know, same as he’s done 89 times in the past two seasons, including the playoffs.
The twist comes after the score. The Chiefs forgo the kickoff, instead electing to hand the football right back to Mahomes for another shot.
Make it, take it.
Not bad, eh?
It could happen, if NFL owners elect to adopt a proposed rule change. According to the NFL Network, the proposal would offer an alternative to the traditional onside kick, allowing a team to put its offense back on the field after scoring. Per the rule, the team would be facing fourth and 15 from its own 25-yard line.
A vote on the potential change, which requires support from 24 of 32 owners for passage, will be held virtually next week.
“To keep the integrity of the game, you like (the onside kick) part of it,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Friday in an online meeting with media. “On the other hand, if it does pass, we’ve got a guy who can do fourth and 15s.”
Uh, yeah.
The Chiefs aren’t in the business of trying fourth-and-15 conversions, but they are often faced with third and long. And on third and 15 or longer last season, Mahomes completed 13 of 17 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers include the playoffs, which means they include Jet Chip Wasp, arguably the turning point of Super Bowl LIV.
It’s no wonder Mahomes tweeted his implied support of the idea. Backs against the wall, the Chiefs have the one player almost every NFL team would select above all others.
Yet their coach isn’t completely on board with the concept — which might offer a glimpse into the chances of the rule being adopted next week.
“I’ve got kind of mixed thoughts on it,” Reid said. “Being an old guy, I’d probably stick with the integrity of the game as it sits right now. But I could also see where the other part would be exciting.”
The proposal — put forth by Philadelphia after a similar model from Denver was voted down last year — would allow each team to attempt the maneuver just twice during a game. (They could still chose the traditional onside instead.)
There is no restriction that a team must be trailing to try it, per the NFL Network report. It simply must notify the referee of its intentions, and then play resumes as a normal fourth-down situation. If they convert, they march on. If not, the opposition will have prime field position.
Would teams be willing to follow a first-quarter touchdown with such a risk? Might the Chiefs have tried to steal an extra possession when they trailed Houston by 24 points in the first half of a playoff game?
That would represent no small change to the NFL rules. The intention is to replace the onside kick, which has seen several adaptations in recent years in measures aimed at boosting player safety. The aftermath has left the onside kick as an increasingly difficult play to execute. Only 12.5% of them were successful in 2019.
But many would argue — and perhaps rightly so — that it should be difficult to convert. It shouldn’t be any easier to secure back-to-back offensive possessions.
And it would be with a new rule.
Using data from 2002-18, NFL Operations found that onside recoveries hovered at 13.2%. Teams converted fourth and 15 at a 16.8% clip over that same time frame, per the research. That includes first downs on defensive penalties, another scenario that has some feeling a bit uneasy.
You know, if you don’t have Patrick Mahomes.